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Monday, October 25, 2004

Betting on the election

Some 'noxious winger goon is trolling the comments, getting people's guesses on the election outcome. I'll bite. I'll make the only sensible, hopeful estimate possible: that Kerry will win big. The alternative is too dismal to contemplate, because it suggests that people are just too damn dumb, too gullible, too easily railroaded by lies and fear, and I have a more optimistic view of humankind.

Even now, I see the fury and the passion rising. We are fed up with the dupes and thieves of the Right, and it's time we frogmarched the petty tyrants out of power, and their yammering sycophants off the airwaves.

Have you read Thompson's latest? He expresses my sentiments exactly, when he's talking about meeting Kerry.

…we reminisced about trying to end the Vietnam War in 1972.
That was the year I first met him, at a riot on that elegant little street in front of the White House. He was yelling into a bullhorn and I was trying to throw a dead, bleeding rat over a black spike fence onto the president's lawn.
We were angry and righteous in those days, and there were millions of us. We kicked two chief executives out of the White House because they were stupid warmongers. We conquered Lyndon Johnson and we stomped on Richard Nixon—which wise people said was impossible, but so what? It was fun. We were warriors then, and our tribe was strong like a river.
That river is still running. All we have to do is get out and vote, while it's still legal, and we will wash those crooked warmongers out of the White House.

That's us. We are the rising tide. We are going to kick the vermin aside and storm the government.

And hey, if Bush and his corrupt cronies try to steal this election, I'll be there in front of the White House in January, dead rat in hand. I'll bring extras for everyone else who wants to join me, too.


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Comments:
#7561: — 10/25  at  06:10 PM
A noxious, winger goon? Moi? I have a name, dammit! I am Bob.

Here's the problem, you bearded logothete:

I’ll bite. I’ll make the only sensible, hopeful estimate possible: that Kerry will win big. The alternative is too dismal to contemplate, because it suggests that people are just too damn dumb, too gullible, too easily railroaded by lies and fear, and I have a more optimistic view of humankind.

I did not ask people who they hope will win. I ask who they think will win. Surely, as an unemotional-Spock-like, calculating, souless machine, you can understand the distinction between hopes and thoughts, no?

I hope there is much chaos and angst and charges and counter-charges and lawsuits and recounts come Nov 2, because I thrive off disorder. I hope Bush (the idiot) wins, because it will piss off the most amount of uppitity academicians and liberal painty-wastes in the country.

I think Bush will win (barely).

And, I don't care if Kerry wins.

How's that?



#7564: — 10/25  at  06:35 PM
Uppity academicians can usually spell the insults they lob at people, you know.



#7565: — 10/25  at  06:37 PM
i'm hoping Kerry will win by a landslide. it doesn't look like that's about to happen, though, and that means Bush gets to be president again -- the previous election showed us what happens when someone defeats a republican by less than a landslide. Karl Rove still not being unemployed, Kerry has to either pull off a miracle or go back to his Senate salary. that's the call i've been making for the last two years or so, and i'm sticking to it.



#7567: DarkSyde — 10/25  at  06:40 PM
I think it's gonna be Kerry also...sadly I'll be out of a cush job as a professional guest blogger. Bush is a satirists dream come true.



#7569: — 10/25  at  06:45 PM
"I *think* Bush will win (barely)."

I did not ask people who they *hope* will win. I asked who they *think* will win. In my book, "thinking" requires some sort of reasoning process and supporting evidence. If you don't have that, "thinking" is hardly different than hoping is hardly different than dreaming.

I *think* I can't say who I think will win, because the polls are too tight and sloppy. And just to keep up the cool, contemplative tone of this discussion, I *hope* Kerry wins, because it will piss off the most^H^H^H^H greatest amount of jingoistic snobs and myopic neo-conservatives in the country.



#7570: sennoma — 10/25  at  06:50 PM
"Bearded logothete"? "Painty-waste"? Bwahahahahahaha!

PZM, j'accuse. You made Bob Flynn up -- that is, there's no such person, all this time it was just you posting drunk or stoned or both. J'accuse!



#7571: — 10/25  at  07:16 PM
I think it will be close. Kerry will win. There will be contests suggested, but there will be no mass screwups where Bush would need them to contest.

The Senate will go Democrat, by one seat.

People are getting serious. They're paying attention now, a week before the election -- and Bush is just too bizarre to stand even modest scrutiny.

Bush keeps claiming he has to be the guy to stand up to Saddam Hussein. But Saddam's in jail, and the war in Iraq is getting tougher. (Do you know the difference between Iraq and Vietnam? Well, Bush had a plan to get out of Vietnam . . .) Gas prices are incredibly high, and crude oil is at an all time high. Ten million of us are making a lot less money than we did four years ago, and we are angry. Millions more are without health care, and they're scared. The stock market is dropping, and Bush's threat against Social Security is regarded as real.

There's a slight chance of a Kerry landslide -- but I predict a close one. Rove tried to stack the deck, fix the elections, but what that really succeeded in doing was making core Democrats angry enough to work hard.

And so we have.

Interesting state to watch: Texas. The dormant African American vote might have swung the state to Gore last time around. Will they remain dormant again?



#7573: — 10/25  at  07:26 PM
"Interesting state to watch: Texas. The dormant African American vote might have swung the state to Gore last time around. Will they remain dormant again?"
The even-more-dormant Hispanic vote could do a lot, too, and here I sit of my fat bourgeois ass not helping at all to get it out. I still like to comfort myself that I did my share of marching and hollering in 1969.....but now I know that wasn't all I owed.

PZ, save a rat for me.



#7574: — 10/25  at  07:35 PM
This is what I see happening.

Bush, in the "Official" count edges out Kerry, but the reports of disenfranchisement and voter intimidation in the state that hangs in the balance (most likely Ohio, possibly Florida, maybe even Nevada) This will force a protracted legal battle, with lower courts finding widespread evidence in support of Kerry, and most likely resulting in very public and very serious condemnations from judges.

But in the end, it will come down again to the Supreme Court. Here I'm not so sure, but I'm hoping that Rehnquist, staring down the specter of death, changes his ways and throws for Kerry.

Oh, and PZ, I might be able to hook you up with some failed liver transplant rats.



#7575: Hank Fox — 10/25  at  07:47 PM
Kerry. By a large percentage.

I work for a newspaper, and get to see stories that don't make it into the general news. I also read a lot of online news.

From all this I've concluded: The breadth of dislike in the U.S. for Bush is stunning. The depth of it is powerful.

If I were taking the general feeling in the country in no other way, I would still be amazed at the numbers of people from Bush's own party, Bush's own White House, Bush's own presidency (as former staffers and Cabinet members), Bush's own military, who have been willing to come out and say that he's a bungler.

These are not squishy "librools" plucking a partisan banjo. These are Republican insiders, men and women who have worked alongside Bush for months or years, who were so shocked and appalled by what they learned about him they felt moved to break with their own political party so they could tell America how dangerous they believe he is.

The American Conservative magazine came out in favor of Kerry. ( "Kerry's the One" — http://www.amconmag.com/2004_11_08/cover1.html )

The anger at the war continues to build. The dismay at the endless transparent lies continues to build.

After the debates, Bush looks less like a president and more like a loser. A small, stupid, confused man who suffers dangerous fugues (lengthy mental freeze-ups) when he's under pressure. He will go back to Texas in January and — I'm predicting — will have a mental breakdown shortly after.

The Republican Party will go down screaming and striking out in every direction, and the next few weeks will be extraordinarily nasty. But ... Bush is losing, Bush has lost, Bush is gone.

Seriously, Kerry is our next President. It won't even be close.



#7577: Hank Fox — 10/25  at  07:59 PM
By the way, nothing I just said is reason to slack off on whatever you're doing to be sure that Kerry DOES win. It's reason to work harder, donate to the Democractic Party (or http://www.moveon.org, or whatever), or whatever else you choose to do. The larger and more convincing the victory, the more control the neo-cons will lose over American government.

And if I'm totally wrong, collect up your dead rats, and let's all head to Washington.

(I heard the suggestion that it would be fun to organize a series of mass call-ins to phone numbers in Washington, DC. If 10 million loyal Americans simultaneously dialed random numbers in the DC area code on, say, some Monday at 8 a.m., or every Monday at 8 a.m., what do you suppose would happen?)



#7578: Hank Fox — 10/25  at  08:01 PM
Sorry, link doesn't work. Try: http://www.moveon.org



#7579: — 10/25  at  08:12 PM
I think Kerry will win. Also, I want Kerry to win. So is my opinion on the outcome just wishful thinking? Let's look at the evidence: On most days, various tracking polls put Kerry and Bush within a point or two of each other. Although Bush has been edging Kerry more often than not, a margin that small is very vulnerable to the collective decision of the undecided voters, which historically tends to break significantly against the incumbent. Furthermore, Kerry has been maintaining a narrow edge in Ohio, without which is is very difficult for a Republican to win the electoral college, and the most recent polls suggest a similar Kerry trend in Florida. Finally, the huge Kerry/Clinton rally in Philadelphia suggests the Kerry lead in Pennsylvania polls is real.

Overall, I think Kerry's electoral vote total will break 300.



#7580: Benjamin Solah — 10/25  at  08:27 PM
I echo your sentiments exactely, My latest blog post says just that. I am from Australia but I have very strong opionions on Bush, as our Prime Minster seems to be Bush's lapdog, following Bush into any armed conflict.



#7581: — 10/25  at  08:34 PM
Hank has it right (#10). Or as I like to say, the yard signs and bumper stickers indicate that they are ashamed and embarrased that he is their Repubican President. In my corner of the inland NorthWest where Republicans outnumber Democrats by wide margins, Democrats are willing to display their support for KE, but Republican's signs tend to only be up for local and state candidates. It is the Clinton syndrome, just a little embarrassing to support a guy with glaring personal flaws (and Bush's flaws are much bigger than Clinton's) even if he is on your team.

In the privacy of the voting booth, people will pick Kerry and in the end be very happy they did.



#7582: — 10/25  at  08:36 PM
Ahh, finally! Thanks for the *thinking*, Tony. smile Bob, please take a cue from Tony.

"Furthermore, Kerry has been maintaining a narrow edge in Ohio... and the most recent polls suggest a similar Kerry trend in Florida"

How odd! I recall hearing on MSNBC tonight that Bush was leading slightly in those states. I could be wrong, tho. Or maybe whoever the info came from deals with "leaning" and "likely" voters differently.

"Finally, the huge Kerry/Clinton rally in Philadelphia suggests the Kerry lead in Pennsylvania polls is real."

I dunno... If people are willing to drive a while to hear you speak, it should be possible to pull together a big crowd even in a place where your opponents outnumber your supporters by a goodly margin. Also, keep in mind that this is the first time Clinton has spoken since his surgery, and I'll bet that attracted a lot of people who might not have bothered otherwise.

"The collective decision of the undecided voters, which historically tends to break significantly against the incumbent"

I heard that too -- anyone know why it happens? Do they correct for the bias when they process the polls?



#7583: — 10/25  at  08:38 PM
... and if I'm wrong, reserve a rat for me PZ. Others protested Vietnam, and the US pulled out just before I turned 19. My thanks to those who stood with Kerry and Thompson to stop that war. The least we can do is the same for the high school graduates of 2005.



#7584: — 10/25  at  08:40 PM
"If 10 million loyal Americans simultaneously dialed random numbers in the DC area code on, say, some Monday at 8 a.m., or every Monday at 8 a.m., what do you suppose would happen?"

We'd... all get arrested?

Seriously, I think the collateral annoyance would be too large to justify it. We should focus on the White House instead. It would be like Denial-of-Service: Old School Style! ;)



#7586: — 10/25  at  08:56 PM
Lord Vetinari by a landslide.



#7588: — 10/25  at  09:37 PM
The so-called "Incumbent Rule" suggests that undecided voters already know enough about the incumbent to have rejected him, but are hesitating to go with the challenger. The upshot of this rule of thumb is that this lack of enthusiasm for the incumbent translates into an edge for the challenger when the undecideds finally vote, perhaps by as much as 2 to 1. A run-down of historical polling results and final election returns was produced by Chris Bowers at MyDD for anyone who wants to check it out. Bowers concludes that the Incumbent Rule is a useful estimate, albeit not definitely established.



#7590: — 10/25  at  09:51 PM
Gentlemen,

Lotta wishful thinking out there. One good concrete prediction by TonyB -- Kerry 300 electoral votes.

Hankfox,

We're still waiting for McCain or Powell to jump ship to Kerry -- 8 more days of hope!

Senoma,

No, I am me -- I am definitely not PZ Meyers, the bearded logothetesmile



#7592: — 10/25  at  11:24 PM
I still think that the Hell's Angels will occupy the White House after November. But I am equally sure Lord Vetenari will be their chapter leader...

[When things get this weird in the Real World, Good Omens and Discworld books strike you as much more sensible than reality.]



's avatar #7596: Ben — 10/26  at  03:59 AM
Bush will win fairly comfortably. Unfortunately. Sorry to pop your bubbles of optimism.

"The great trouble is that the preachers get the children from six to seven years of age and then it is almost impossible to do anything with them." --Thomas Edison.



#7597: — 10/26  at  04:38 AM
Let me remind everybody that there has been a trend to conservatism throughout the world for the past few years... Here in Australia the conservatives were just given a landslide victory. And we have compulsory voting. Don't be too optimistic.
Anyone else think it's ironic that a war was started because Saddaam might sell nasty weapons to terrorists, and they've just gone and lost a few hundred tons?



's avatar #7598: Ben — 10/26  at  05:27 AM
Here in Australia the conservatives were just given a landslide victory.

Apples and oranges. The economy is stable and Iraq, either through ineffectual Labor campaigning or the lack of bodybags, never really became an election issue. If the governments were reversed, Bob Brown would currently be Opposition Leader. OK, not really, but Howard, deprived of his only election platforms, would've been massacred nonetheless.

"The great trouble is that the preachers get the children from six to seven years of age and then it is almost impossible to do anything with them." --Thomas Edison.



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