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Thursday, September 01, 2005

Drowning New Orleans

George W. Bush, September 2005:

"I don't think anybody anticipated the breach of the levees."

Scientific American, October 2001:

New Orleans is a disaster waiting to happen. The city lies below sea level, in a bowl bordered by levees that fend off Lake Pontchartrain to the north and the Mississippi River to the south and west. And because of a damning confluence of factors, the city is sinking further, putting it at increasing flood risk after even minor storms. The low-lying Mississippi Delta, which buffers the city from the gulf, is also rapidly disappearing. A year from now another 25 to 30 square miles of delta marsh--an area the size of Manhattan--will have vanished. An acre disappears every 24 minutes. Each loss gives a storm surge a clearer path to wash over the delta and pour into the bowl, trapping one million people inside and another million in surrounding communities. Extensive evacuation would be impossible because the surging water would cut off the few escape routes. Scientists at Louisiana State University (L.S.U.), who have modeled hundreds of possible storm tracks on advanced computers, predict that more than 100,000 people could die. The body bags wouldn't go very far.

Read the whole thing. It's a detailed description of the problem, with suggestions about what needs to be done to correct it.

Dear gob, I wish we could impeach a president for being an incompetent boob, a disgrace to his office and the nation, and just plain dishonest twit. We can arrest someone for being irresponsible and non compos mentis while driving a car, but when he's driving the country? Heck, all we can do is watch as he kills people and wrecks the nation.


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Comments:
#38327: Ithika — 09/01  at  06:09 PM
I was watching stuff about it on the Beeb this evening. The news reporters kept parrotting this "no-one would suspect this could happen in the world's wealthiest nation" crap. Aye! They could! They did! The wealthy part of the world's wealthiest nation doesn't give a toss (or have a clue). I don't know why they can't just say it. I'd feel really sorry for you guys if Tony Blair wasn't such a bawbag too. We're all heading to hell in a handbasket together.



#38330: Ron Zeno — 09/01  at  06:15 PM
"I don't think anybody anticipated the breach of the levees."

The real problem is, he's probably telling the truth.



#38333: — 09/01  at  06:31 PM
We're all heading to hell in a handbasket together.


Well at least in hell we'll be in good company. Though I suppose we might miss folks like Lutheran theologian Bonhoeffer, who if I recall correctly, said something along the lines that ethics are things you do and not statements you make about right and wrong. Or something like that. Which probably relates to people castigating looters without considering the situation. Or being willing to donate to disaster stricken areas, but unwilling to address the perpetual and disastrous poverty these people were already living in.



#38337: — 09/01  at  06:51 PM
The news reporters kept parrotting this "no-one would suspect this could happen in the world's wealthiest nation" crap.


Gah, I hear that all the time. The hurricane was going to wash over new orleans and the gulf no matter what we did, but the disaster that happening in new orleans right now? That could of been prevented.

But of course no politician wants to relocate money to prevent something that could happen, but when it does happen they will be the heroes.

I read in national geographic, I believe, the inevitabily of a big hurricane hitting new orleans, especially with the surge of more and stronger hurricanes. How it will be a disaster unless something is done to protect the city further.

shrug* Came sooner than we thought, but we should of been prepared. The damn French founded New Orleans, they should be blamed! Freedom fries here we come!

-----
"As with all of ID, the important thing is first to have the concept. Production can then follow as a matter of course.” -Dembski



's avatar #38338: Zeno — 09/01  at  06:55 PM
The real problem is, he's probably telling the truth.


I think Ron Zeno is right in saying that. This is an administration that never recognizes or prepares for negative potential outcomes. Won't huge tax cuts cause the national debt to soar? Of course not: an economic boom will offset everything! Won't an invasion of Iraq be a long and bloody conflict? Of course not: Happy Iraqis will shower our soldiers with flowers and we'll be out of there in a few months, maybe weeks! Won't continued uncontrolled emission of greenhouse gases contribute to global warming? Heck, no! First of all, global warming doesn't exist! Second, it'll be good for us! Third, we couldn't do anything about it if we tried (so we won't)! Isn't New Orleans in grave danger from the next big hurricane that strikes it? How silly! The levees are big piles of dirt! Where would they go? And hurricanes are just an unproven meteorological theory!

Gutting an effective government agency like FEMA and abandoning New Orleans to the elements is nothing more than par for the course with this White House gang.



#38340: charlie wagner — 09/01  at  07:05 PM


The "fat man" is missing in New Orleans.


Fats Domino, a rhythm and blues legend has not been heard from since Sunday.

But he still speaks to us. Listen.

http://www.charliewagner.net/fats.mp3



's avatar #38341: PZ Myers — 09/01  at  07:07 PM
Bad news. It sounds like Fats didn't make it.

PZ Myers
Division of Science and Math
University of Minnesota, Morris



#38342: — 09/01  at  07:14 PM
Many people were aware for years of the potential for disaster. It is perhaps surprising that this storm was enough, but I have seen references 4 or 5 years old that suggest the levee system was overrated and could fail in a Cat 2/3 storm.
What is truly incomprehensible is the lack of any plan for dealing with the aftermath (sound familiar ?). Everyone knew that up to 100,000 people (mostly poor, elderly, and/or infirm) would stay in the city. Where was the plan to mobilize a relief effort ? Why is it days and so little water, food, transportation, and medical assistance is available ?
Fortunately my parents got out since their home is now submerged, along with all their belongings of 52 years except a few clothes.



's avatar #38344: Chris Clarke — 09/01  at  07:28 PM
Wikipedians have edited that death announcement I quoted in the page PZ links to, because no one is reporting anything yet. Still: it doesn't look good.

"I do not think we should antagonize the religious when it is not warranted, though I think we should be willing to do so whenever it is.”
-- Glen Davidson



#38346: davidm — 09/01  at  07:31 PM
Fats Domino did make it.



's avatar #38350: Chris Clarke — 09/01  at  08:21 PM
Thanks, davidm. I've corrected my page.

"I do not think we should antagonize the religious when it is not warranted, though I think we should be willing to do so whenever it is.”
-- Glen Davidson



#38353: John — 09/01  at  09:17 PM
Given that this scenario has been predicted for years, I too have been wondering why there was not a better plan in place for what to do in the aftermath. Why not mobilize the Guard ahead of time instead of waiting several days? Why not have food available in advance at the temporary shelters like the Superdome ahead of time? And why not have a plan (and infrastructure) in place for evacuating the areas below sea level before the storm hits? I think the questions need to be asked, and answered, in advance of any planning for rebuilding New Orleans, because the city is clearly not a safe place to live without a workable plan for these types of contingencies.



#38355: arensb — 09/01  at  09:48 PM
I'm happy say that you're wrong: CNN is reporting that Fats Domino has been found alive.



#38356: Bill Stouffer — 09/01  at  10:07 PM
"...I wish we could impeach a president for being an incompetent boob, a disgrace to his office and the nation, and just plain dishonest twit."

More than enough justification for sure. With his performance so far this week, there might even be a majority of Americans in support of impeachment. But then we would only end up with Cheney who. I think I read somewhere today, is still on vacation. We're just screwed.



#38357: arensb — 09/01  at  10:18 PM
Cheney who. I think I read somewhere today, is still on vacation. We're just screwed.

Call me naive if you like, but I doubt that even this administration would allow both the president and vice-president to go on vacation at the same time.

Of course, I'm open to the possibility that I have a severely dysfunctional cynicism gland.



#38358: — 09/01  at  10:22 PM
Let's be fair here: People have known that New Orleans was living on borrowed time since they built the first levee. If you're going to blame this on Bush, you also have to blame it on Clinton, and every other administration back to Lincoln.

-jcr



#38360: — 09/01  at  10:27 PM
Given that this scenario has been predicted for years, I too have been wondering why there was not a better plan in place for what to do in the aftermath.
(And similar comments)

OK, so it's not just our imagination ("us" being two Canadians living in a place where Katrina meant maybe one day of moderate rain -- we had local thunderstorms this summer that were lots heavier) that the city, the state, the USA seemed to be totally blind-sided by this thing. Hell, *I've* read Prophecies of Doom for NO from Gulf storms before -- was no one in the government(s) listening? They knew for years that something *like* this was coming, and for days that, now it was coming. But it seems to have taken, what? -- four days to start sending in the troops to stop looting, to realize the whole place needs evacuating and start doing it?

Sure, using a big stadium for a refuge seems like a great idea -- so where was the advance planning to make sure the place stayed livable?: power, running water, flush toilets....
As my wife remarked: the irony is that NO probably has an emergency plan for terrorist attack. If they had one for hurricane, it's not obvious.



's avatar #38361: — 09/01  at  10:54 PM
Lt Kizhe. The Government ordered the evacuation of New Orleans before the hurricane, and mostly it was done. Those trapped in the city are there against Government advice. Incredibly, rescue teams and helicopters are being shot at. I think the failure was that the National Guard was not sent in before the hurricane to provide for an orderly evacuation and did not stay to prevent looting and to organize the rescue.

We engineers design things with an eye to stand one in a hundred years events. Statistically, that event may take place tomorrow. We live by statistics, every bridge is a potential disaster in waiting.

Quod natura non sunt turpia



's avatar #38362: Chris Clarke — 09/01  at  10:58 PM
So, Randolph, not reading the news this week?

"I do not think we should antagonize the religious when it is not warranted, though I think we should be willing to do so whenever it is.”
-- Glen Davidson



#38363: Llelldorin — 09/01  at  11:11 PM
Jaimito--not everyone could leave. You're right--what was needed was assistance so (for example) the sick, the elderly, and folks without cars could leave.

There were lots of problems here. Levee maintenance had been deferred by the federal government for the past few years to free up money for the war. FEMA has been pulled from its usual job of disaster preparedness, but the new agency that was to take the mission hasn't been established yet. <A HREF="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/29/AR2005082901445.html"
Here's a link to that last.</A> There weren't enough folks set up to prevent looting. (Remember, looting always starts after a huge disaster like this. A certain fraction of any large group of people are morons.) The evacuation order wasn't much more organized than "Everyone run for your lives!!!!" shortly before the hurricane hit.

Look at what's happening here, and tell me that you don't want the old '90s FEMA back. That FEMA was really, really good at this sort of situation. The current one seems barely able to get food and water to starving people.



#38365: — 09/01  at  11:54 PM
See I think that it's terrific. It's fantastic that someone as dumb George W can get to be the president of the USofA.

Why should dumb people be discriminated against? Why should intelligent people get educated and be able to move into the move influencial areas of management around the world? That's completely unfair. Dumb people should have a chance too!!!!

What a role model, what a fantastic mentor to build your life around. "Dumb as George" should be the new catch phrase for education around the world. Stupid people can do what they like in life, the sky's the limit. More power to the dumb people of our world.

He did have his father as a role model and then there was that shining light of all things dumb Ronald Reagan. What the f*&% is going with the Americans? Why the hell can't they get someone in with even the smallest semblance of a brain? Bloody hell, get your house in order!!!!!!!!!!!!

Apologies, we do have out own dumb-ass. You've probably never heard of him, good on little Johnnie.



#38366: Bill Stouffer — 09/01  at  11:57 PM
arensb asked:
"Call me naive if you like, but I doubt that even this administration would allow both the president and vice-president to go on vacation at the same time.


Under the heading Where's Cheney?" Dan Froomkin in The Washington Post reports on Aug. 31

Vice President Cheney, who has spent part of August at his home outside scenic Jackson, Wyo., remains there today -- although his spokeswoman, Lea Anne McBride, doesn't call it vacation.

"He's working from Wyoming today," McBride told me this morning.



#38367: Jason — 09/02  at  12:03 AM
I must point out that the article discusses the problems of storm surge, and how bad it can be. Bush's quote is about a levee breach. Those are two different events, one worse than the other, actually.

When you are sitting in a bathtub with a rubber ducky (who doesn't?) and you slosh back and forth and the water splashes out all over the floor, it is a different problem than the tub wall coming apart and all the water getting out that way.

The article you cite doesn't neccessarily contradict Bush's statement at all, it doesn't even discuss a breach.



#38368: — 09/02  at  12:12 AM
"I don't think anybody anticipated the breach of the levees." can be correctly reduced to "I don't think" where the Shrub is concerned.

As a Californian, I can kind of understand people being trapped in an earthquake; after all, they don't give much advance warning. Same for a tornado -- not everyone in tornado country has a storm cellar (though why that should be is a whole subject unto itself). But a hurricane??!!? Why the heck wasn't there an evacuation plan in place, along with some scheme for evacuating people who couldn't evacuate themselves?

The closest I've come to experiencing a hurricane was in the mid-'80s, when I was doing some work on site for a customer in Pensacola, Florida. I and my Californian colleagues left town two days before the storm (cat-3 Elena) hit, and I was white-knuckled driving through what I thought was unimaginably heavy rain to get to the airport. (Elena stalled in the gulf and threw lots of rain bands shoreward.) It was far more terrifying than the 1989 northern California earthquake, where I was merely hunkered down next to a cubicle wall with ceiling tiles falling on me.



#38370: Ali — 09/02  at  12:22 AM
It most certainly could have been anticipated, and in fact, it was before:
For example, in the 1990s, in planning for a New Orleans nightmare scenario, the federal government figured it would pre-deploy nearby ships with pumps to remove water from the below-sea-level city and have hospital ships nearby, said James Lee Witt, who was FEMA director under President Clinton.



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