Pharyngula

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Thursday, August 04, 2005

I don't care how many scientists support it, I don't believe in astrology

Listening to Richard Land on the Rehm show reminded me of something. He was very repetitive, insisting that the fact that a few hundred scientists with Ph.D.s thought that Intelligent Design creationism was valid was really, really important. You can see that in much of what the Discovery Institute does—they love to find a few scientists who support them, and then they wave them around and try to argue that this means they really are scientific.

It doesn't work that way.

Scientists are human beings, too, and we all have our personal quirks and failures to think rationally. You will always be able find some small fraction of the population of scientists who believe in some wacky thing, whether it is UFOs, bigfoot, or that ST:TNG is better than ST:TOS. It is nothing but background noise. Finding that I have an irrational infatuation with cephalopods does not mean that squid-loving is scientific.

Here's another example: Kary Mullis. He won the Nobel Prize! He invented PCR, which even laypeople know is some extremely cool DNA technology that they use all the time on CSI!

At the same time, he's an HIV denier (and coauthored papers with the Discovery Institute's Philip Johnson, no less). I know, I know, many of the same crackpots who love Intelligent Design creationism will think that's a point in his favor, but how about this: he's also an astrologer. He believes the stars influence everyone's destiny. And astrologers do exactly what the Discovery Institute does, and claim validation by listing the 'scientists' who support their ideas. (You know, I wouldn't be at all surprised to learn that there are just as many scientists out there who think there is something to astrology, as there are those who think Intelligent Design creationism is Da Bomb. I've seen polls that show over half the population believe astrology works. Shall we start teaching it in the schools?)

Mullis wrote an autobiography, Dancing Naked in the Mind Field, that is depressing in how it reveals the poor understanding of science held by an actual Nobel Prize winner. He has a chapter on his personal discovery of the validity of astrology. He ran through a whole heap of astrological descriptors from his birthdate. Some fit, some didn't (no surprise there). He then filtered those assessments, picking the ones that fit best, and announced that the astrological factors behind the good predictions were correct, while the others were invalid.

Methodologically, it was a disgraceful example of blatant selection bias, and cherry-picking the data to his hypothesis. It was very, very bad science. I literally cringed on reading it, it was so embarrassingly stupid. He even ended the chapter by saying that he really hadn't needed to write an abutobiography—all he needed to do was publish his birth data, and everything else was derivable.

It just goes to show that finding a few scientists, even prominent scientists, who believe in something doesn't make it so. That Argument from Miniscule Fraction of Authority of which the Discovery Institute is so fond is utterly bogus. Science rests on replicable experiment and observable evidence, not the credentials of one or four hundred or even ten million scientists.


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Comments:
#33746: — 08/04  at  04:47 PM
Mullis is also a drunken womanizer who makes for some very interesting reading. I read an interview with him a decade ago, where he spent the entire interview trying to get the interviewer in the sack. It all began when she noticed the topless polaroids all over his fridge, which he claimed random women sent him in the mail. It was hilarious.



#33747: Martin Wagner — 08/04  at  04:47 PM
Take the American Family Association survey.

http://www.afa.net/petitions/intelligentdesign/TakeSurvey.asp



#33748: — 08/04  at  04:51 PM
Wasn't there something in Mullis's book about a raccoon alien talking to him?



#33749: — 08/04  at  05:01 PM
That's why science works so well: it's scientist-proof.



#33750: — 08/04  at  05:26 PM
Yes, I suspect that the Nobel Committee rues the day it gave Kary Mullis his prize. He is a fruitcake nutjob... I have had several people (at parties and such) say, "Oh! You're a chemist? I just read this great book by a chemist named Kary Mullis.... he so cool and interesting!" (groan....)



#33751: — 08/04  at  05:28 PM
Was Mullis not basically a glorified technician, and just one member of a _team_ that figured out how to automate a process that had already been conceived and carried out manually by Manfred Eiger among others? Gotta be one of the all-time worst Nobel awards.



#33754: — 08/04  at  05:44 PM
Is there any way to make governments politician-proof?



#33755: John Emerson — 08/04  at  05:55 PM
Mullis is a good case for a contrarian take on the philosophy of science. Apparently he was a very bright, hard-working guy with no scientific common sense who happened to be at the right place at the right time.

Actually, that's close to Kuhn's paradigm-shift idea. Mullis was working within a paradigm, he also introduced a new paradigm, and he really didn't need to understand anything else.

It could also be argued that his looniness made him more inventive and less conventional. A fair number of major scientists were pretty wacky even during their productive years.



#33756: — 08/04  at  06:01 PM
Mullis attributes his discovery to an acid trip.



#33757: — 08/04  at  06:09 PM
With no strong evidence to the contrary, I'm going to believe that his Nobel was deserved. His deranged statements don't suggest otherwise. Many famous scientists were a little nuts. Nothing I've ever heard Mullis say is as enraging as Richard Smalley's lunatic claims about the burden of proof on the genesis fairy tale.



's avatar #33763: PZ Myers — 08/04  at  06:33 PM
Oh, yeah. The Nobel isn't awarded for personal hygiene, character, or hat size, but for the discovery. And PCR deserved it.

PZ Myers
Division of Science and Math
University of Minnesota, Morris



#33764: — 08/04  at  06:52 PM
The question isn't whether PCR deserved it- obviously yes- but whether Mullis deserved to be singled out as _the_ inventor of PCR, which is a lot more dubious.



#33766: — 08/04  at  06:54 PM
I think it's worth asking why some pseudosciences are politicized (creationism) and why some are not (astrology). I wonder if anyone has ever done so; I've never been able to find much on that.

Closer to home for a biologist, consider the continuing popularity among "alternative medicine" advocates of various forms of vitalism. Yet despite having an impeccable intellectual pedigree, vitalism has died a slow death in the mainstream scientific community over the last few centuries, and it has been completely discredited over much of the last century. Molecular biologists have yet to find any trace of "vital force" in their researches.

Yet vitalists do not demand that public-school curricula include vitalism alongside molecular biology.



#33774: Lee J Rickard — 08/04  at  07:39 PM
poke sez:
That's why science works so well: it's scientist-proof.

I fondly remember learning in school that "Science is a body of knowledge so well organized that even the incompetent can add to it."



#33777: — 08/04  at  07:47 PM
why some pseudosciences are politicized (creationism) and why some are not (astrology).
I think you are starting from a partially false premise. Astrology used to be very much politicised (pre-USA of course, which may be the educational gap problem). Establishing the right portents (eg comets) for who should lead and do what and when used to matter (in Europe and in China).

I would guess that religion, as the traditional participant in power-struggles was nearly always to blame. If the religion included astrology then astrology came into the secular politics of kings, warlords and presidential/imperial war-mongers. If the dominant local religion includes creationism then that is what "has" to be courted.



#33779: WolverineTom — 08/04  at  07:56 PM
You will always be able find some small fraction of the population of scientists who believe in some wacky thing, whether it is UFOs, bigfoot, or that ST:TNG is better than ST:TOS.


TNG is better than TOS!



#33784: Eva Young — 08/04  at  08:43 PM
I've commented on political strategy on this one here:

http://lloydletta.blogspot.com/2005/08/political-strategy-for-shining-light.html

I think the important thing to do on this issue is to kick creationist butt, rather than republican butt. There are a number of Republicans who support good science education, and a number of democrats who support creationism.

I very much enjoyed meeting your wife at Drinking Liberally.



#33794: coturnix — 08/04  at  09:47 PM
It took me several hours to figure out what on Earth acronyms ST:TNG and ST:TOS stood for. I only watched Mr.Spock as a kid (and loved it), so I have nothing to compare...

I have read Mullis' auto-bio and was deeply amused - I had a lot of beer while reading it. Actually I had a prelims question about him...I forgot exactly what.

I have always assumed that Mullis' acid-trip idea was a key for the invention of PCR and, thus, that his Nobel is deserved. It was in chemistry, after all, not in biology. Any more info on contrarian views?



#33797: ThomH — 08/04  at  09:53 PM
Right. I'd like some clarification on those few hundred scientists, actually. I've read the Discovery.org "Dissent from Darwinism."

1. The 400 signatories have NOT declared for ID, although some are overt IDers on that list.

2. The definition of "Darwinism" they dissent from is so narrowly defined as to be unacceptable to most mainstream biologists.

So an "easy" albeit false victory, I guess.

(My comments on the same here -- your corrections, criticism, advice more than welcome).

So was Land referring to the same people? Because these are truly two different issues.

DI is using popular misunderstanding of "Darwinism" and evolutionary theory as wedge issues. In some cases, they claim to be "debunking" positions that responsible evolutionary biologists simply do not hold--and have not for years.

So was Land referring to confirmed, "card-carrying" IDers? Or was he playing the usual bait-n-switch?

re: Eva Young
I agree with you entirely that supporting good science education, and in this case, the teaching of evolution and not non-scientific alternatives, should be a non-partisan cause.

Grrl Scientist, who most might put in the liberal camp, quoted George Will arguing against ID.

I've lost a lot of respect for Will over the past several years--but I give him credit on this.



#33806: — 08/04  at  11:34 PM
Okay, I'm sorry for posting this in a proffesional blog like this. But if you have a sense of humor, and you hate astrology with a passion read this

-----
"As with all of ID, the important thing is first to have the concept. Production can then follow as a matter of course.” -Dembski



#33813: — 08/05  at  01:56 AM
I have to admit that, like most Virgos, I don't belive in astrology (nor would you, given what it has to say about Virgos. We don't always fall asleep while making love.)

Bertrand Russell quoted a letter he received which said, roughly, "Solipsism is so obviously true, I don't understand why everyone doesn't believe in it."



#33815: Beep — 08/05  at  02:33 AM
Well, I grew up with astrology, because my stepfather believed in it (and mom is a Catholic. I hope the combination didn't make me schizo).

And yet even I don't want astrology taught in schools!

Or "Intelligent Design", for that matter.

But Bush has a talent for doing exactly the opposite of what I would want in most areas. I think he is my personal AntiPresident.



#33817: — 08/05  at  02:58 AM
Beep, no he's my anti-President (except of course, that he isn't the President in the countries I am a citizen of).

One thing I find really annoying about astrology, is the fact that you are not allowed to critisize it. At least not in Denmark. People feel free to make general remarks about your personality based on the simple fact of when you're born, but if you tell them it's nonsense, you are oppressing their rights to believe in what they want.
Well, I'm sorry, but I actually recent the fact that you judge me without knowing me.



#33819: — 08/05  at  03:19 AM
You have my sympathies. I am a Middle East historian (by education, a librarian by career) so I know quite well what it is like having crackpots and pseudo-scholars being accepted as 'experts' in your field.



#33822: — 08/05  at  04:04 AM
The same thing happens in music with musicians. The ones who get the most media hype and publicity are not necessarily the best as judged by their qualified peers at all.



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