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Saturday, January 08, 2005

Jared Diamond interview

There's an excellent interview with Jared Diamond in Salon—I'm definitely going to have to buy his new book, Collapse.

Toward the end of "Collapse" you describe two crucial factors for determining whether or not a civilization will survive, and one of them is whether there's a willingness to discard unhelpful values. Clearly we have some values in this country that are very important to us, but some of them, like anathematizing family planning, aren't very helpful in this day and age.

You're right. One of the two or three key issues is discarding values dear to us, values that we held for a long time and that were important in the history of the United States but just no longer make sense today. The two traditional American values that I think -- that I know -- have to be discarded are, first, unbridled consumerism resulting from our sense of being in a land of unlimited resources. Historically the United States has viewed itself as the land of infinite bounty, endless fields of grain. But now we're in a world that does not have unlimited resources, and we have to come to grips with that.
And the other long-held American value is the value derived from the United States' relative isolation. George Washington in his farewell address warned Americans about the danger of entangling alliances, and for a couple of hundred years the United States was able to function well because we were separated by oceans from any country that might damage us. But now the oceans don't separate us from countries that could damage us. Now, even desperately poor countries like Afghanistan and Iraq can raise absolute hell with our economy -- as well as killing a few thousand people in the process. So the other long-held value with which we have to come to grips is our sense of isolation. We're not isolated anymore. We have to engage with the rest of the world -- not in order to be charitable to them but for our own self-interest. It's much cheaper to put a few tens of billions of dollars into world programs for public health and environment than to throw $150 billion into Iraq and $100 billion into Afghanistan, when there are about 20 other countries waiting to become the next Iraq and Afghanistan. We can't afford it.

Foolish Jared, expecting people to do the reasonable, rational thing.


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Comments:
#12795: — 01/08  at  02:04 PM
Foolish to expect the rational?

Jefferson rolled the dice, betting exactly that way. Madison, less of a gambler, stacked the deck so that, in our Constitution, the irrationals play off against each other.

Foolish? You know, really, for 215 years or so it's paid off handsomely. Sure, we can get frustrated sometimes. But the nature of the process is that we are required to set the tiller aright when other set it wrong, just as we hope they will set it aright if we set it wrong.

It may be foolish to hope, but hope is better than despair. Despair is even more foolish, at best.



#12799: coturnix — 01/08  at  02:50 PM
OK, I read this post, got in my car, went to Quail Ridge Books and bought it. Can't wait to get started....



#12801: — 01/08  at  03:33 PM
... doesnt look like Diamond expects people to be rational, he is just pointing out ways we could be.

One unfortunate side effect of the gas crisis of the 70's is that many came out of it believing that it was a scam by the oil companies (probably true), and therefore there was no oil shortage (not true). There is a finite supply of oil, but of course alternate fuels offer hope of putting off the apocalyse. I believe it was Jan who said a few days ago that capitalism deals poorly with these long range supply and demand problems. Even with the doubling of the price of gas in the last few months the preponderance of vehicles offered for sale, and roaming the roads, in my area are trucks/suvs that get less than 20 mpg (going downhill with a tailwind).



#12804: — 01/08  at  04:24 PM
Will and Ariel Durant wrote a short piece titled "Lessons of History" after the success of their history of civilization series. One of their indicators of decline/decadence was when the main players in the culture stopped having children.



#12807: — 01/08  at  05:12 PM
Another salient measure of decline for past societies is when intelligence becomes viewed as a negative (dangerous) characteristic.

Aren't we supposed to learn from history's mistakes?

Oh yeah. Only intelligent (and "immoral") people do that.

Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

-Jerry Garcia



#12812: — 01/08  at  06:03 PM
Another decline indicator is when the children of the societal elites stop serving in the military. Maybe Matt can check this stat: Only two Harvard grads are supposed to have seen service in Vietnam.



#12819: — 01/08  at  07:01 PM
One of the interesting questions, at least for me, is why oil prices aren't behaving in the manner predicted by economists. According to the theory, oil prices (or the prices of any exhaustible resource), should rise at the rate of interest for a comparably risky investment (i.e., if an oil-field and a corporation have an equal probability of turning out badly in an unexpected way, oil prices should rise at the interest rate of a corporate bond). Part of it, undoubtedly, is OPEC price manipulation. Still, while a monopoly would make oil prices higher than in a competitive equilibrium, I don't see why it would dramatically change the trend of oil prices, unless future demand curves for oil just look a lot different than present ones.



#12821: — 01/08  at  07:29 PM
Well, Julian, oil prices are a perplexing animal. I work at a small, independent gas station, and it doesn't make sense to me how the price of a gallon of gas fluxuates by 15 or more cents per gallon from one day to the next. It does, however, go a long way in putting independents, such as where I work, out of business. You would think that a product that takes so long to transform from a raw product to a consumer good would be more stable, but i guess it's so politically charged that this is not the case . . .

But I'll try not to mention the absurdity with which the high-income owners of high-end gas guzzlers are the first to vehemently bitch about the price of a gallon of gas (as if I have something to do with it, and as if I'm getting rich working there). Hell, I want to send them all to Mexico or Europe, let them really see how expensive gas can get . . .

Jamie



#12829: — 01/08  at  09:56 PM
"...unless future demand curves for oil just look a lot different than present ones."

On a tangent in econimics class one day, mentioned the hypothesis that oil has a "back-bending supply curve." It looked like a sideways parabola: as price rose, quantity supplied increased and than decreased again. I have no idea what the theory behind it was, or what its consequences were supposed to be.



#12830: — 01/08  at  09:57 PM
Oops. "On a tangent in econimics class one day, my teacher mentioned..."



#12831: — 01/08  at  09:57 PM
Holy shit! Did I just write "econimics?" Twice?



#12838: — 01/09  at  03:00 AM
That's why it's known as "the dismal science."

(Dismal, certainly -- science I'm still looking for . . .)



's avatar #12839: — 01/09  at  03:20 AM
Richard: Decadence is stopping having children, avoiding military service, and cutting all the trees?

Quod natura non sunt turpia



#12840: BioGeek — 01/09  at  08:47 AM
When Jared Diamond said "The two traditional American values that I think — that I know — have to be discarded are..." I immediately thought of the question recently posed by John Brockman (a literary agent and publisher of Edge, a Web site devoted to science):

"What do you believe is true even though you cannot prove it?"

Certainly Diamond believes this is true, even if he cannot prove it. Interestingly, he was asked this question, but his answer turned out to be one of his other well thougth out ponderings.



#12874: — 01/10  at  08:13 AM
Dr. Diamond has an interview on NPR this morning (Monday, January 10). The interview is on Morning Edition. The interview is not online as I write since today's edition is not up yet, but the site says that today's features are due at 10 AM Eastern Time which a bit under an hour from the time I am typing this.

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#12938: — 01/10  at  03:28 PM
jaimito: Earth First! Log the other planets later.



#12956: — 01/10  at  06:56 PM
Jared Diamond on NPR's Morning Edition

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#13000: — 01/10  at  11:55 PM
Prophets of the coming Apocalipsis are unfailingly proved wrong without ever losing authority. Already, the first church concilia declared all apocaliptic literature as false. We can easily manage without cheap oil - have coal (Germans distilled oil from coal during WWII), biomass, nuclear energy, and much more. Moreover, a hot planet will make heating obsolete. I admit, future generations may have a problem if we fail to have children, but our ancestors seem to have found a way to solve that, so there may be hope for us too.



#13001: — 01/11  at  12:07 AM
I admit, future generations may have a problem if we fail to have children, but our ancestors seem to have found a way to solve that...

Failure to have children means there will be no future generations, so there is no maybe about it. Or are you thinking that we can just clone from here on out.



#13314: — 01/14  at  02:08 PM
After striking out at the friendly local bookstore (waiting list for Collapse), I managed to snag the last copy from the U Bookstore. Reading for the 3 day weekend.

I will be happy to share with one of you starving students when I am done with it.



#13315: coturnix — 01/14  at  02:16 PM
I started it last night. Should be done in a couple of days.



#13317: — 01/14  at  02:23 PM
DD: And here I thought I was going to have an interesting weekend researching the Gran Chaco war...



#13318: — 01/14  at  02:36 PM
Richard,

It is a long weekend drive to Bolivia ... 3 days is probably not enough.



#13326: — 01/14  at  03:42 PM
DD: Me was considering extended sittings at the LA public library, followed by large helpings of Yeukee at Dong Il Jang's. Upon consideration, though it might be more fun to cruise the county roads of the Palouse in search of white clapboard cafes with hefty waitresses and fabulous, greasy food.



's avatar #13328: PZ Myers — 01/14  at  04:18 PM
There are days when living in a tiny town without a decent bookstore really pisses me off.

I'm probably going to have to wait until next weekend, when I make a trip to the Medium Sized Town, to pick up a copy for myself.

PZ Myers
Division of Science and Math
University of Minnesota, Morris



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