#38950: — 09/05  at  08:56 PM
In the law, you can infer intent from conduct in some types of cases. Reckless behavior becomes a stand-in for intent because otherwise you would let people off who do incredibly dangerous things that put people and property at risk simply because they didn't form an intent to harm.

This disaster doesn't meet that standard. First, no one knew what would happen until after the levee broke and that levee is not on the shore of the Lake. If the hurricane had stayed on course or had moved a few miles more to the side, the levee may well not have burst. Second, the effect of the levee break wasn't apparent immediately. The section that failed is a concrete structure on top of a dirt structure and it appears to have failed because the dirt structure had subsided - as the whole city does each year - and water came over the top, eroding the base and causing a failure.

Third, though people talk about evacuation plans, think about the logistics. New Orleans Parish has a half million people. If 20% are elderly or disabled - which is low - that's 100,000 people. You would need something like 2,000 buses to carry them, if you could somehow in short hours collect them from all over, with their medical needs, with their necessary things. Impossible. We aren't going to maintain giant fleets of buses all over the coast where a hurricane might strike just in case.

Fourth, once the city flooded, things turned bad fast. There was a total breakdown of city services, meaning water and electric, and some people acted very badly. My guess is that the number of killings, etc. were wildly overstated based on rumors, guesses and heard gunshots. The timeline was that the hurricane hit, the levee failed the next day and by the fourth day help was arriving. That's actually pretty fast.

Fifth, because of wonderful things like TV and the net, we see things happening and imagine that systems can respond instantly. After all, we respond with outrage immediately. Can't happen in the real world.

Finally, this site is about science. I'm not a fan of Bush, but it's not rational to heap scorn and blame without discussing the pragmatic parameters.

#38971: Alon Levy — 09/05  at  10:22 PM
First, no one knew what would happen until after the levee broke and that levee is not on the shore of the Lake.

On the contrary, a year ago FEMA predicted almost everything that turned out to happen in the event of a category 4 or 5 hurricane.

Third, though people talk about evacuation plans, think about the logistics. New Orleans Parish has a half million people. If 20% are elderly or disabled - which is low - that's 100,000 people. You would need something like 2,000 buses to carry them, if you could somehow in short hours collect them from all over, with their medical needs, with their necessary things. Impossible. We aren't going to maintain giant fleets of buses all over the coast where a hurricane might strike just in case.

You don't actually need 2,000 buses, only 2,000 bus trips. There was a warning of at least 48 hours; at 6 hours per bus trip, this reduces the number of buses required to 250 assuming 24-hour use, 333 assuming 18-hour use.

#38979: ekzept — 09/05  at  11:48 PM

Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities.

-- Winston Churchill

#38991: Alon Levy — 09/06  at  04:55 AM

The unnatural and increasingly rapid growth of the feeble-minded and insane classes, coupled as it is with a steady restriction among all the thrifty, energetic and superior stocks, constitutes a national and race danger which it is impossible to exaggerate... I feel that the source from which the stream of madness is fed should be cut off and sealed up before another year has passed.

I do not admit for instance, that a great wrong has been done to the Red Indians of America or the black people of Australia. I do not admit that a wrong has been done to these people by the fact that a stronger race, a higher-grade race, a more worldly wise race to put it that way, has come in and taken their place.

- Winston Churchill

#39023: ekzept — 09/06  at  09:56 AM
from the Financial Times:

The conservative Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper noted Friday that the "community spirit and optimism among the American people would ensure they would overcome the catastrophe", but added: "One should be allowed to ask whether the authorities reacted quickly enough, whether the preparations for such a disaster were extensive enough and whether the relief efforts functioned properly".

#39081: ekzept — 09/06  at  04:27 PM
damning, damning FEMA behavior reported, once again in the Financial Times, this time from Brad Delong, professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley.

hey, where's the United States media, including CNN, on all of this stuff?

#39200: ekzept — 09/07  at  01:03 PM
interesting. in the document having the wonderfully lucid title of Federal Stafford Act Disaster Assistance: Presidential Declarations, Eligible Activities, and Funding, there are a couple of pertinent paragraphs.

Presidential Declarations. Under Stafford Act authority, five types of
actions may be taken, summarized as follows.
! Major disaster. The President issues a major disaster declaration after receiving a request from the governor of the affected state. Major disaster declarations may be issued after a natural catastrophe or, "regardless of cause, fire, flood or explosion." A declaration authorizes DHS to administer various federal disaster assistance programs for victims of declared disasters. Each major disaster declaration specifies the type of incident covered, the time period covered, the types of disaster assistance available, the counties affected by the declaration, and the name of the federal coordinating officer.
! Emergency. The declaration process for emergencies is similar to that used for major disasters; the President may, however, issue an emergency declaration without a gubernatorial request if primary responsibility rests with the federal government. An emergency declaration may be issued on "any occasion or instance" in which the President determines that federal assistance is required. Under an emergency declaration, the federal government funds and undertakes emergency response activities, debris removal, and individual assistance and housing programs. DRF expenditures for an emergency are limited to $5 million per declaration unless the President determines that there is a continuing need; Congress must be notified if the $5 million ceiling is breached.
! Fire suppression. The Secretary of DHS is authorized to provide fire suppression assistance to supplement the resources of communities when fires threaten such destruction as would warrant a major disaster declaration.
! Defense emergency. Upon request from the governor of an affected state, the President may authorize the Department of Defense (DOD) to carry out emergency work for a period not to exceed 10 days. DOD emergency work is limited to work essential for the preservation of life and property.
! Pre-declaration activities. When a situation threatens human health and safety, and a disaster is imminent but not yet declared, the Secretary of DHS may place agency employees on alert. DHS monitors the status of the situation, communicates with state emergency officials on potential assistance requirements, and deploys teams and resources to maximize the speed and effectiveness of the anticipated federal response and, when necessary, performs preparedness and preliminary damage assessment activities.

remember that: Stafford Act. in particular, note Sections 5131-5132. Section 5132 says in part:

! Readiness of Federal agencies to issue warnings to state and local officials: The President shall insure that all appropriate Federal agencies are prepared to issue warnings of disasters to State and local officials.
! Technical assistance to State and local governments for effective warnings: The President shall direct appropriate Federal agencies to provide technical assistance to State and local governments to insure that timely and effective disaster warning is provided.
! Warnings to governmental authorities and public endangered by disaster: The President is authorized to utilize or to make available to Federal, State, and local agencies the facilities of the civil defense communications system established and maintained pursuant to section 201(c) of the Federal Civil Defense Act of 1950, as amended (50 U.S.C. App 2281(c)), section 611(c) of this Act, or any other Federal communications system for the purpose of providing warning to governmental authorities and the civilian population in areas endangered by disasters. [§ 3412(b), Pub. L. 103-337, Oct. 5, 1994] [Reference to § 611(c) is incorrect; probably should be § 611(d). Technical correction needed]
! Agreements with commercial communications systems for use of facilities: The President is authorized to enter into agreements with the officers or agents of any private or commercial communications systems who volunteer the use of their systems on a reimbursable or nonreimbursable basis for the purpose of providing warning to governmental authorities and the civilian population endangered by disasters.

doesn't look like a local or state responsibility to me.