Pharyngula

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Thursday, December 09, 2004

Sailer fans, meet Rivka

Respectful of Otters has a fine, fine post up on the Brooks/Sailer bigotry. I'll also mention here some of my objections.

One problem is that Sailer's argument is selective. If "natality" or birth rate is the key criterion, why throw out a sizable chunk of the sample by explicitly disregarding the entire non-white population? There is a casual disregard of African-Americans that is simply appalling: all of the issues that Sailer claims are so important—security and education—are equally important to all of us. Blacks are excluded simply because they do not fit his predetermined hypothesis.

Once he has filtered his data to get the result he wants, he then uses that result to draw unwarranted and odious conclusions. Take, for example, this comment:

Focusing on children, insulation, and population density reveals that blue-region white Democrats’ positions on vouchers, gun control, and environmentalism are motivated partly by fear of urban minorities.

Look at that. He has "revealed" that we white Democrats are motivated by fear...but notice how he arrived at that conclusion: from the fact that birth rates are low and population density is high in urban regions. I presume everyone with any perception at all is able to see that he has not in any sense measured "fear"…that is simply his unjustified interpretation.

He continues this pattern of drawing absurd conclusions throught the piece. Why have Democrats historically been rather more supportive of gun control?

The endless gun-control brouhaha, which on the surface appears to be a bitter battle between liberal and conservative whites, also features a cryptic racial angle. What blue-region white liberals actually want is for the government to disarm the dangerous urban minorities that threaten their children’s safety.

Mr Sailer is certainly projecting here, isn't he? Yeah, all those white Democrats are quivering in terror at the murderous black mobs out to slaughter their children. As a white liberal who worked and lived in Philadelphia, it's just nonsense. I was concerned about urban crime, but I was also quite aware that the city slums were more than just lairs for those dangerous black people—there are brutal white neighborhoods, too, and safe middle-class black neighborhoods. I would have liked criminals to be disarmed, sure; but unlike Sailer, I did not have this biased preconception that they were all black. And now that I'm living in one of those thinly-populated lily-white parts of the country, I still have the same feeling that some moderate gun control is a good idea (but I probably think it less important than people like Sailer believe I do).

He continues to claim to speak for us, and continues to play the race card in a ridiculous way.

White liberals, angered by white conservatives’ lack of racial solidarity with them, yet bereft of any vocabulary for expressing such a verboten concept, pretend that they need gun control to protect them from gun-crazy rural rednecks, such as the ones Michael Moore demonized in “Bowling for Columbine,” thus further enraging red-region Republicans.

That first bit is just bizarre beyond words. I don't understand how anyone can come to that conclusion—does he really believe that we white liberals are sitting around, fearing the black mob that surrounds us, and resenting the white Republicans for not coming to our rescue? Our neighbors are our friends and colleagues and fellow voters, people we work with and with whom we share common cause. We really aren't secretly pining away for the redeeming love of white racists, I swear.

I don't think I ever heard a Philly denizen confess to worrying about our country cousins coming to town and shooting us, either. There were plenty of guns in the city itself, so the redneck rampage scenario would be just…laughable. Besides, I thought Sailer was claiming we were afraid of "dangerous urban minorities." I guess when you are busy flinging baseless stereotypes around, you don't have time for consistency.

I don't even see why people think Sailer's odd little correlation is even interesting. It just doesn't explain anything. It looks to me that the racialists saw some of their favorite buzzwords ("white breeders vote Bush") in close proximity and had a creepy kind of orgasm, nothing more significant than that.

Rivka comes far closer to the truth than Sailer. It isn't an issue of black or white, it's a matter of a common, universal human response that has been observed all around the world. Give people a choice, give them an education and economic opportunity, and they voluntarily limit the number of children they have. In thinly populated regions where religion and ignorance reduce people's liberty, birthrates go up. In urban areas where people are more diverse and less limited in their views, people choose to have fewer children—rather than spreading their resources thin over many, they prefer to invest heavily in a few. And you don't have to arbitrarily look at only white people to see the phenomenon in action. All Sailer has done is to take socioeconomic and historical facts about the distribution of people in this country, and painted them with a simplistic black vs. white brush.


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Comments:
#10597: God Fearing Atheist — 12/09  at  09:41 PM
From Steve's response to the Tapped diatribe:

Franke-Ruta seems to be convinced that I drew a correlation between Bush's share of the vote by state and the total fertility of white women by state because I am a racist. No, I did it because I am interested in the facts. I of course also looked at the correlation of Bush's share and the total fertility of all the women in the state, but the r-squared of that nonracial correlation was only 37%, compared to 74% for the correlation between Bush's share and white fertility. For Franke-Ruta's benefit, let me point out that 74% is twice as big as 37%. As for explaining to her what an r-squared is, well,...

The reality is that white fertility correlates with Bush's share of the vote better than total fertility or nonwhite fertility does.


Compare with PZ's comments above:

If “natality” or birth rate is the key criterion, why throw out a sizable chunk of the sample by explicitly disregarding the entire non-white population? [...] Blacks are excluded simply because they do not fit his predetermined hypothesis.



's avatar #10600: PZ Myers — 12/09  at  09:47 PM
Why, yes. That's what I said. He threw out non-white fertility data because it doesn't fit his hypothesis. Breeding rates have nothing to do with whether one votes for Bush or not.

PZ Myers
Division of Science and Math
University of Minnesota, Morris



#10617: coturnix — 12/09  at  11:26 PM
I have poasted several more blogosphere responses to Sailer (and Brooks) on the bottom of this post:

http://sciencepolitics.blogspot.com/2004/12/terrorism-fascism-nativism-whats.html



's avatar #10619: — 12/09  at  11:29 PM
Respectfully, PZ, among "whites", they do.

Quod natura non sunt turpia



#10622: — 12/09  at  11:44 PM
jaimito, et al. My post from the 'slapdown' thread. It fits here, too.

“it assumes that people across the country and across the political spectrum have similar underlying motivations: they want what’s best for their children.”

People across the political spectrum and across the country (and the world) want what is best for their children. White people, brown people, Democratic people, Asian people, old people, young people, female people, male people, white-collar people, educated people, ignorant people human people, people, people …

but for some reason SS, you can only study white people, talk about white people and cite data about white people. No doubt if you had been around a hundred years ago you would have found some reason to leave Irish immigrants out of your studies, just as you leave Latino and African immigrants out now.

In short your work is designed to find that white people are somehow unique and special, and miraculously you pose the hypothesis and parse the data so that is what you find.



#10625: — 12/09  at  11:50 PM
jaimito,

The point you seem to miss is that the specious correlation between whites breeding and Bush voting is not a causation. That fact that SS is capable of finding these types of correlations does not mean they deserve any hearing beyond him talking to himself in the shower.

Political decisions are not driven by biology.



#10639: — 12/10  at  03:32 AM
seems to be part of a broader Republican strategy of trying to cast Democrats as racists.

For example here's an Ann Coulter column where she rants about how the democrats aren't so multi-cultural when it comes to Condi Rice:
http://www.anncoulter.org/
(It's the latest one, December 8 2004; I don't seem to be able to link directly).

Or this from last year:
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2003/8/5/165021.shtml

Or just type the words "Racist democrats" into Google and see what it spews out...



#10641: Glaivester — 12/10  at  04:42 AM
You're accusing Mr. Sailer of bigotry, while you accuse religious and rural people of being inhernetly anit-liberty?
"In thinly populated regions where religion and ignorance reduce people’s liberty, birthrates go up."

The fact of the matter is that there is a correlation between white fertility and Bush's share of the vote. You may disagree with Mr. Sailer on what it means, but it exists and it almost certainly has to mean something (it's too good a correlation to be random chance).

Another point: no one here is suggesting that only white poeple want to do what's best for their children. What's being suggested is that white people may be more likely to see the GOP as being good for their children, and so the more child-oriented they are, the more pro-GOP. Thsi doesn't work with minorities because they are less apt to see GOP victories as beneficial to their offspring.



's avatar #10642: — 12/10  at  05:06 AM
To Desert Donkey aka Equus asinus, asno, burro ("Political decisions are not driven by biology"): Yes, they are.

Many human behaviours were thought to be unrelated to evolutionary pressures, but now we are learning that marriages are not made in heaven, that getting pregnant has little to do with chance and so on. I do not know how evolutionary forces have sculpted our way of selection of leaders, but how could it be unaffected by biology? Of course, I know that there are exceptions: the Chinese Emperors rule by Mandate of Heaven, the Japanese Emperor is a direct descendant of the Sun God, and most European Monarchs were put on their thrones by God himself.

Quod natura non sunt turpia



#10643: DarkSyde — 12/10  at  05:06 AM
Calling someone a racist is not bigotry if they are, indeed, a racist. Pointing out fundamentally flawed statistical methodology is not an ad hominem if one has experience with such matters and can make valid critiques. This methodology is fatally flawed and makes no sense as PZ has presented if the writer is hoping to use valid data to make reasonable inference. It does however make sense if the writer is hoping to validate an a priori ideology and doesn't give a hoot how transparently he cooks the numbers to do it. Stating apossible motivation to solve that mystery and laying out that case is perfectly legitimate.



#10644: mattH — 12/10  at  05:26 AM
Glaivester
You may disagree with Mr. Sailer on what it means, but it exists and it almost certainly has to mean something (it’s too good a correlation to be random chance).


Repeat after me: "Correlation does not always mean causation". A statistical correlation, especially one that ignores a variety of other possible variables, is essentially useless until you can prove a causal link. Things can have a very high correlation and have no connection. Furthermore, anyone can run a statistical examination of a set of data until something comes up, but that doesn't mean that it actually is documenting a causal relationship. The very fact that it doesn't explain the higher rates of infant mortality or teenage preganancy that Rivka mentions means it's likely a farce.

What’s being suggested is that white people may be more likely to see the GOP as being good for their children, and so the more child-oriented they are, the more pro-GOP. Thsi doesn’t work with minorities because they are less apt to see GOP victories as beneficial to their offspring.


That's just horrible. Not because of the racial content mind you, but because you're putting the cart before the horse here. We haven't even got an explanation for why these states have a higher birth rate, or at least one that supports the idea presented, yet you're already using the correlation to explain things. Trust me, it's not clearing up the ambiguities present.



#10645: mattH — 12/10  at  05:37 AM
So, jaimito, care to explain how some cultures have managed to remain essentially egalitarian when they are surrounded by much less egalitarian societies? It would seem that, considering our evolutionary history, that they would be more likely to be our evolutionary heritige and the more modern, less egalitarian societies like ours are the aberrant, evolutinarily contradictory, state.



#10649: — 12/10  at  07:02 AM
Give people a choice, give them an education and economic opportunity, and they voluntarily limit the number of children they have. In thinly populated regions where religion and ignorance reduce people’s liberty, birthrates go up. In urban areas where people are more diverse and less limited in their views, people choose to have fewer children—rather than spreading their resources thin over many, they prefer to invest heavily in a few

Also, don't forget that the marginal cost of raising an extra child goes up with income levels - It is a lot more expensive for a highly paid women to give up the time (and lost income) necessary for each extra child than it is for lower paid women or stay-at-home-moms.



's avatar #10650: PZ Myers — 12/10  at  07:58 AM
(“Political decisions are not driven by biology”): Yes, they are.


This is the heart of Sailer's problem. They're not. People don't vote for Bush because they are driven by some biological property associated with white skin; all the phenomena he claims to have driven the white vote are also present in blacks and hispanics and asians. What's driving the white vote for Bush is ignorance of diversity and bigotry and history.

It's not something to be proud of, as Brooks and Sailer seem to regard it. Treating it as a race issue ignores the root causes.

PZ Myers
Division of Science and Math
University of Minnesota, Morris



#10657: — 12/10  at  09:07 AM
white people may be more likely to see the GOP as being good for their children

It's not race, it's religion.

Much of the white population in this country is Christian, and many of them think that "non-Christian/non-white is wrong," and so they want their children to think that "non-Christian/non-white is wrong."

So, they vote GOP, because it is the party pushing bigotry and that bastardization of the constitution.

These biological suppositions aren't just racist, it's in someways politically motivated.

It's not just saying that minorities don't care for their children, but also that those whites who voted Democratic must be the statistically "bad" parents of the race.

White people: If you want to be a good parent, and a good white person, and a good bigot...

...vote GOP!

I guess I have an excuse because I don't have children yet. But once I have a few, I can only hope that I'll instantly turn into a nice, white racist - for my children's sake, of course.

Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

-Jerry Garcia



#10668: — 12/10  at  10:12 AM
Well written post. I wish David Brooks would read and absorb it, but that can't happen. It would disrupt his neat and tidy worldview. (This Sailers character appears to be beyond hope. What possible objective could "research" like this have beyond advancing racist stereotypes, giving them a scientific-looking veneer?)

Thanks PZ, for casting some sunlight on this fetid swamp.



#10676: — 12/10  at  10:41 AM
MattH: You got some issues, boy. (wipe the smirk off your face Jeebus, you's another of them "I slit my wrists out of middle-class guilt" good orthodontia with a facial piercing types) You lurk thru all the science discussions but the minute somebody mentions race relations, you're on it like a Victorian prude on a raised hemline. Breathe, for crying out loud. Go on a Peace Corps tour or Mormon Mission or Jamaican Ganga cruise or something where you get some exposure. Open a clinic on the South Side or whatever.

The only thing that pisses me off more than the social-justice whining of a limosine liberal is a fallen Republican, the kind that wants vouchers but hires illegals, the kind that likes his deer rifle but is edging toward gun control because there was a gang shooting down in the bario and his son is sparkin' a girl down there.

Think globally, act locally. Treat people decently and enforce the laws. Mark my words: If we don't fix this tiny little issue of overpopulation and border control, the sunset of all of our lives will spent watching, participating in or being participated upon, genocides of unimaginable proportions.



#10678: — 12/10  at  10:52 AM
Richard, I dont want to lower the level here, but you seem to lay in wait for MattH to give you an opening to apply some of your redneck analysis. My opinion is that it isnt very charming anymore.



#10679: — 12/10  at  11:05 AM
DD: You're probably correct, but it's always the same prim, smarmy superior didacticism. I think the actual correct term would be sophomoric. As Matt very correctly pointed out once, a lot of my information IS anecdotal, an opinion which has been the germ of a lot of analysis on my part. So I do take what he says into account. I just don't like political correctness any more than PZ likes Thumpus bibliocii*.

As an aside, I have never been accused of being charming. It's part of my, er, charm.

*sorry, no italics



#10684: Rivka — 12/10  at  11:54 AM
Great post, PZ. The gun control stuff you quote is just bizarre. There's not a word about why blue-state urban black Democrats favor gun control laws, you'll notice, because that would destroy his neat sociological analysis about white liberals projecting their fear of blacks onto rural Republicans.

I live in a large city with a homicide problem. It doesn't take a demographer to notice that most of the victims of handguns in this city are black. Urban folks tend to favor gun control because, in cities, guns tend to be used to commit crimes - not for hunting. Howard Dean pointed out this rural-urban split in quite sensible ways during his campaign, without having the slightest need of playing the race card.



's avatar #10686: — 12/10  at  12:02 PM
PZ: "All the phenomena (Sailer) claims to have driven the white vote are also present in blacks and hispanics and asians." Touche, the point is valid. Sailer's correlation works only for whites, indicating that something may be incomplete or wrong. However, intuitively I feel evolution must have operated on how a group selects its leader and why people vote for one instead of the other. Social and political sciences are so ignorant of biology in general and evolution in particular that they have left the whole field open to research. They seem to be working on the basis of a "creationist" paradigm, ignoring that we (voters, leaders) are all product of evolutionary forces.

Quod natura non sunt turpia



's avatar #10687: PZ Myers — 12/10  at  12:16 PM
Guess what? If you looked at the people who put Confederate flag decals on their pickup trucks, you'd find an even stronger correlation with whiteness. And there would also be a strong correlation with voting for Bush. Why, the appreciation of the ideals of the Confederacy must be biological, and we should study it as an evolutionary process!

PZ Myers
Division of Science and Math
University of Minnesota, Morris



#10689: — 12/10  at  12:27 PM
Rivka: Excellent first para, although I could pick at it a little, it seems he has left a very large omission.

I would differ on your second, however. First, most guns used in urban areas are intended for defense. However, in the sense that they never get used at all, aside from occasional range time, means that the vast majority of firearms in urban areas are for peace of mind. Tens of millions of American city dwellers don't talk guns, don't even think of themselves as gun owners, but they are comforted that they have one at arm's reach. The very archetecture of our nation's residential neighborhoods is based on two things: law and order, and the ability to defend from within—open plans, lack of fences and barless groundfloor windows. The European, Middle-Eastern and Latin American plan is enclosed with windows on the upper floor only and an outer defensive wall.

Anecdotal example: A decade ago, my extremely liberal (and highly talented) neighbor in Echo Park showed me, with tremedous guilt, a Mossberg 590 12-gauge he had under his bed. His equally anti-gun wife turned a blind eye. I asked him why he felt he needed to have it and he said that after all was said and done and the statements of equality, compassion and tolerance were said, defense of the home fell on his shoulders.

So, depending on the BPM (bricks per minute), this guy might vote Republican on a given day to preserve his right to self defense. The same goes for Americans of color, rural AND urban. There would have been fewer lynchings if more Negros had been armed early on. I don't remember the name of the the hugely liberal Negro columnist in DC who wrote endlessly on GC but then shot at some kids in his pool with a borrowed handgun.

In Los Angeles today, the most heavily armed community in the city is that of the Hassidic Jews. Permits or no, they pack.



#10694: paperwight — 12/10  at  01:10 PM
In Los Angeles today, the most heavily armed community in the city is that of the Hassidic Jews. Permits or no, they pack.

Of course, one might want to mention that Hasidic Jews are to a great extent reactionaries who froze their religion sometime in the Middle ages, support a colonialist policy in Israel, make up a large percentage of the colonists in the Occupied Territories, and tend to believe (relative to other Jews) that Palestinians are subhumans who should be shot on sight if one can get away with it.

They're hardly an advertisement for the sensibility of gun ownership.

I am, BTW, neutral on gun control -- just want to point out that the Hasidim, especially the Chabad Lubavitchers so prevalent in LA, are roughly equivalent to the Fundamentalist Christian Right -- they even have their own messiah.



#10696: — 12/10  at  01:16 PM
I don't see how anyone can come to believe, as Bertolt Brecht (Communist writer in the 1920s and 1930s) did, that all social problems/disparities are solely "a product of history, not of nature," which seems the apparent belief of many here. Given what we know about biological factors that can affect intelligence (such as NMDA and GABA activity during development), what we know from twin studies (which PZ *completely* denies the validity of out of hand), and what we know about the correlation between white matter in the brain and IQ (just to name a few), Brecht's conclusion simply seems loony.

Add to that the ineffectiveness of trillions--if not tens of trillions--spent on all kinds of social interventions to close both individual and group disparites, and I think there's a pretty clear cut case that Brecht and his fellow travelers were/are clearly wrong in denying (for all practical purposes) the effect of genetic variation on society.



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