Pharyngula

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Thursday, December 09, 2004

Sailer fans, meet Rivka

Respectful of Otters has a fine, fine post up on the Brooks/Sailer bigotry. I'll also mention here some of my objections.

One problem is that Sailer's argument is selective. If "natality" or birth rate is the key criterion, why throw out a sizable chunk of the sample by explicitly disregarding the entire non-white population? There is a casual disregard of African-Americans that is simply appalling: all of the issues that Sailer claims are so important—security and education—are equally important to all of us. Blacks are excluded simply because they do not fit his predetermined hypothesis.

Once he has filtered his data to get the result he wants, he then uses that result to draw unwarranted and odious conclusions. Take, for example, this comment:

Focusing on children, insulation, and population density reveals that blue-region white Democrats’ positions on vouchers, gun control, and environmentalism are motivated partly by fear of urban minorities.

Look at that. He has "revealed" that we white Democrats are motivated by fear...but notice how he arrived at that conclusion: from the fact that birth rates are low and population density is high in urban regions. I presume everyone with any perception at all is able to see that he has not in any sense measured "fear"…that is simply his unjustified interpretation.

He continues this pattern of drawing absurd conclusions throught the piece. Why have Democrats historically been rather more supportive of gun control?

The endless gun-control brouhaha, which on the surface appears to be a bitter battle between liberal and conservative whites, also features a cryptic racial angle. What blue-region white liberals actually want is for the government to disarm the dangerous urban minorities that threaten their children’s safety.

Mr Sailer is certainly projecting here, isn't he? Yeah, all those white Democrats are quivering in terror at the murderous black mobs out to slaughter their children. As a white liberal who worked and lived in Philadelphia, it's just nonsense. I was concerned about urban crime, but I was also quite aware that the city slums were more than just lairs for those dangerous black people—there are brutal white neighborhoods, too, and safe middle-class black neighborhoods. I would have liked criminals to be disarmed, sure; but unlike Sailer, I did not have this biased preconception that they were all black. And now that I'm living in one of those thinly-populated lily-white parts of the country, I still have the same feeling that some moderate gun control is a good idea (but I probably think it less important than people like Sailer believe I do).

He continues to claim to speak for us, and continues to play the race card in a ridiculous way.

White liberals, angered by white conservatives’ lack of racial solidarity with them, yet bereft of any vocabulary for expressing such a verboten concept, pretend that they need gun control to protect them from gun-crazy rural rednecks, such as the ones Michael Moore demonized in “Bowling for Columbine,” thus further enraging red-region Republicans.

That first bit is just bizarre beyond words. I don't understand how anyone can come to that conclusion—does he really believe that we white liberals are sitting around, fearing the black mob that surrounds us, and resenting the white Republicans for not coming to our rescue? Our neighbors are our friends and colleagues and fellow voters, people we work with and with whom we share common cause. We really aren't secretly pining away for the redeeming love of white racists, I swear.

I don't think I ever heard a Philly denizen confess to worrying about our country cousins coming to town and shooting us, either. There were plenty of guns in the city itself, so the redneck rampage scenario would be just…laughable. Besides, I thought Sailer was claiming we were afraid of "dangerous urban minorities." I guess when you are busy flinging baseless stereotypes around, you don't have time for consistency.

I don't even see why people think Sailer's odd little correlation is even interesting. It just doesn't explain anything. It looks to me that the racialists saw some of their favorite buzzwords ("white breeders vote Bush") in close proximity and had a creepy kind of orgasm, nothing more significant than that.

Rivka comes far closer to the truth than Sailer. It isn't an issue of black or white, it's a matter of a common, universal human response that has been observed all around the world. Give people a choice, give them an education and economic opportunity, and they voluntarily limit the number of children they have. In thinly populated regions where religion and ignorance reduce people's liberty, birthrates go up. In urban areas where people are more diverse and less limited in their views, people choose to have fewer children—rather than spreading their resources thin over many, they prefer to invest heavily in a few. And you don't have to arbitrarily look at only white people to see the phenomenon in action. All Sailer has done is to take socioeconomic and historical facts about the distribution of people in this country, and painted them with a simplistic black vs. white brush.


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Comments:
#10702: Glaivester — 12/10  at  01:41 PM
"Repeat after me: “Correlation does not always mean causation”. A statistical correlation, especially one that ignores a variety of other possible variables, is essentially useless until you can prove a causal link."

No one is saying that correlation proves causation. But it does prove that there is some relationship there.
Repeat after me: "The correlation is too large to be random chance."

And the correlation, even if we don't know the other variables, is NOT useless from a study standpoint. There must be some reason or reasons why high white fertility correlates so strongly with % Bush vote. Whether high fertility causes GOP voting or vice versa, or whether both are caused by some third or fourth factor and are correlated indirectly, something somewhere must explain the correlation.

Also, Sailer never said that correlation implies causation. He noticed a trend, and based on what he sees in society, posited a hypothesis of why this might be so. I don't see his hypothesis as being that unreasonable; if you want to question it, poke holes in it, or suggest alternate hypotheses, fine, but to dismiss it as disproven because it hasn't been proven is ridiculous.



#10712: — 12/10  at  02:31 PM
paperwight: Point (and in 3 hours, pint) well taken. I was using it as an example of a non-WASP/Redneck population refusing to be intimidated and taking their defense into their own hands. It's not like there are Hasidic drive-bys:

"What do we have here, Officer?"
"Well, Detective, there are these 9 by 19 casings strewn down the street and this weird fur hat leaning up against the curb. Two actors wearing Arab costumes were wounded as they walked toward The Ivy"."
"Hmmm....whaddya make of that tiny book on the man-hole cover?"

Believe me, having lived as a Goy in Israel, I have been the target of Hasidic intolerance and bigotry (stone-dents in the van are cool). I'll still drink a beer with them.



#10722: mattH — 12/10  at  03:28 PM
Glaivester

No one is saying that correlation proves causation. But it does prove that there is some relationship there.


All you've done is used different words to say the same thing. A meaningful relationship between two things is a causal relationship, in one direction or the other, or they have a common cause. For example, there's a correlation of 1 between my age and the distance between the earth and certain galaxies, yet there's no causal relationship between those two things.

It is possible that they have a common cause, but that's not what Sailers hypothesis is stating. In fact, the hypothesis presented by Rivka is just that, which in my book does a much better job of explaining the correlation presented.

Richard, I have over 120 posts here. Perhaps there's another reason that I don't post all of the time, or in the topics you think I should be posting in. Besides, I'm pretty tired of your constant harping that anyone who disagrees with you is being PC. Perhaps instead you could actually argue with substantive facts instead of simply insulting others. But that would require you to actually take the time to understand the arguments being presented instead of just making a caricature out of them.



#10729: — 12/10  at  04:50 PM
As a member of the EU I'm staying out of this with an expression of stunned amazement on my face (what is Sailer saying? Does he know how idiotic it sounds?)

But this nonsense demands response:


The European, Middle-Eastern and Latin American plan is enclosed with windows on the upper floor only and an outer defensive wall.


I don't know about the Middle East and Latin America, but this is just not true of Europe. I don't think I've ever seen a European building with 'windows on the upper floor only' (the lower floors would be remarkably unpleasant to live in), and outer defensive walls are only present in stately homes, added centuries ago as defence against what was then a fairly high probability of attack, or added in the last quarter-millennium or so as pure ostentation.

You might do well to consider the noun phrase 'French windows'. You don't see them on upper floors --- but you do see them on a very high proportion of residential homes.



#10731: — 12/10  at  04:51 PM
Er. That is, a citizen of a member of the EU. I'm not claiming to be a nation-state. smile



#10732: — 12/10  at  04:51 PM
MattH: I'm going to take a cliched woman's exit out of this and say that it's not what you write, it's the way you write it that gets my undies in a knot. But as for simplifying things, I had always been taught that true genius is the art of making complex concepts easy to understand. As for the number of posts, it's like saying, "I fired 120 rounds". Doesn't mean they hit the target. I USUALLY understand the arguments presented and I often agree with them. If everyone is posting endorsements of an opinion, then my voice isn't needed. But if I see wanton buffoonery I'll jump in with both feet. I respect you as an academic. Sometimes you're on target (as with para 1, post #28), sometimes outside the five-ring. FWIW: Besides a BA, my education has been working experience in a wide variety of fields so I can't quote too many textbooks. The people, places and work I've known are my references.

OK, what is NMDA and GABA? Should I know what these are?



's avatar #10733: PZ Myers — 12/10  at  05:06 PM
NMDA: N-methyl-D-aspartatic acid. It's an agonist to a particular kind of glutamate receptor; it isn't found naturally in the body, but is a handy compound for distinguishing that one class of receptor.

GABA: gamma-amino-butyric acid. A neurotransmitter.

He could have gone on about glycine and acetylcholine and serotonin and tetra-ethyl ammonium and conotoxin, other compounds that neuroscientists tend to slosh around inside brains. It's about as relevant.

Mr Dude was pretty much just babbling out biology buzzwords to make you think he knew something about the topic. It's kinda funny...like if I want down to the hardware store and start shootin' the breeze about 3/8" ceramic bits and grouting compound to impress the regulars. Pretty soon they'd be smirking and asking my opinion of left-handed grommet wrenches.

PZ Myers
Division of Science and Math
University of Minnesota, Morris



#10735: — 12/10  at  05:23 PM
What is it with these people and their determination to make something out of "the effect of genetic variation on society"? If they are trying to prove "white people are better", why don't they just say so? And if they aren't, what value can there possibly be in this "research"? Even if the statement "This correlates with that" is factual, none of the conclusions Sailer derives from the correlation are legitimate or meaningful, and they ignore mountains of contradictory evidence, as PZ and several other posters above have clearly shown.



#10736: — 12/10  at  05:23 PM
"left-handed grommet wrenches" Things are getting pretty loose around here and it isnt even the drinking hour on the west coast yet. Also known as beer-thirty in some quarters.



#10737: — 12/10  at  05:27 PM
PZ: Your powers of metaphor are undiminished. Thanks for the hip-pocket class on chemistry o' the brain. If'n y'all got a ballistics question, consider my hat thrown in the ring. In the mean time, I'll keep following the posts with a growing reference library at hand.

Nix: Sorry, should have written "traditional". I've been to most of Europe (N, W, S, limited east) and up until the Belle Epoc it seems the model, especially in the south, was the Roman/Moorish inner courtyard. Regarding French windows, homes nice enough to have them would tend to have an outer wall (and night watchman), as do their farm houses. French villages still shut up everything tightly at night. As with all things, throwing out a generalisation invites criticism, and yours was justified. I was hoping for brevety. Major cities in the US are now preserving the open archetecture but placing the alarmed homes in gated communities with controlled entry.



#10738: — 12/10  at  05:36 PM
ggw ... That is a tough one. I seem to have lost track of the gene that turns white guys into Republicans. I couldnt find it when I lived in big cities or suburbs. No luck while working on the road crew or digging ditches or driving truck. NASCAR watching and motorcycle racing didnt work.

I am at a complete loss as to what triggers this gene or why I am a white guy without one. So I went to more school and started working in higher education and am an atheist so I can pretend I am superior to all those people who have the white guy's Republican gene. But I still live in a small town, just in case there is a time based component. Heck I even know about left handed grommet wrenches .. and muffler bearings, too.

What is with these people? Beats the hell out of me.



#10739: — 12/10  at  05:52 PM
OK, what is NMDA and GABA? Should I know what these are?

Forgive me for rambling here a bit...but since a person here asked, here goes.

The NMDA receptor is the receptor for glutamate, as well as N-methyl d-aspartate (which is a more powerful agonist of the NMDA receptor than glutamate, thus the name NMDA receptor). The NMDA receptor is involved in learning and memory, among other things. Schizophrenia is often associated with low NMDA activity, and high NMDA activity is often associated disorder called Multiple Chemical Sensitivity. High NMDA activity may also be associated with excessive self-conciousness; many of those who most enjoy the dissociative drugs (see below) say they do becuase "they help to take away a near-constant self-consciousness, an almost self-absorbing embarrassment or "inner critic."" (from William White's essay "This is your Brain on Dissociatives"-- http://leda.lycaeum.org/?ID=9299).

There is a class of drugs called 'dissociatives,' including PCP, ketamine("special K"), nitrous oxide (laughing gas), and dextromethorphan (over-the-counter cough suppressant), that block the NMDA receptor. Heavy doses of dissociatives can cause symptoms indistinguishable from schizophrenia (note that for DXM it takes a dose roughly 20 times the normal cough suppressant dose to induce psychotic symptoms--accidentally ODing on cough syrup won't land you in the loony bin).

There are also common dietary additives that agonize the NMDA receptor, including MSG and aspartame (Nutrasweet). Researcher John Olney has expressed concerns about these additives causing 'exitotoxicity,' which results from excessive NMDA activity.

GABA is gamma-amino buytric acid, and the GABA receptor is the major receptor targeted by alcohol, as well as benzodiazepines (such as Valium) and barbituates.

Alcohol targets the NMDA receptor and the GABA receptor, and alcohol's effects on both these receptors during development is a major factor in Fetal Alcohol Syndrome:

"Drugs of abuse that block NMDA glutamate receptors include phencyclidine (PCP or "angel dust"), ketamine (special "K") and nitrous oxide (laughing gas). Both ketamine and nitrous oxide are used frequently in pediatric anesthesia. GABA receptor activators that are frequently abused and/or used in pediatric anesthesia include benzodiazepines, barbiturates, isoflurane and propofol.

"In light of this new evidence, it obviously is prudent for expectant mothers to avoid any of these drugs," Olney said. "It also will be important to carefully reevaluate how these drugs are used in pediatric medicine with an aim toward developing guidelines that ensure an adequate margin of safety."

The death of neurons by apoptosis occurs naturally. It enables the brain to get rid of unhealthy cells or cells that are not needed for normal brain development. "But what we saw was cell death at many times the normal rate," Ikonomidou explained. "And alcohol and these other drugs don't just cause cells that are going to die anyway to die more quickly. They cause cells that never would have died under normal circumstances to commit suicide. And millions are involved.""

http://medicine.wustl.edu/~wumpa/news/2000/olney.html

William White (who has researched DXM and other dissociatives heavily) also warns of the dangers of dissociatve use during pregnancy:

"All dissociatives are extremely toxic to developing fetuses and they should never be used during pregnancy (this probably includes cough-suppressant doses of DXM, by the way). Severe brain damage and mental retardation may result."



#10741: — 12/10  at  06:32 PM
What is it with these people and their determination to make something out of “the effect of genetic variation on society”?

Well...maybe because so many destructive quasi-Utopian beliefs are based on the idea that if we just spend enough money, if we just passed enough programs and regulations, if we just had a truly "fair" society, we could have a society in which people were basically equal. Or to put it another way, a society in which if we took 1000 random kids from South LA, or 1000 random white or Asian kids for that matter, and put them in the right environment, we could raise them all to be successful college students in the major of your choice. Even our Republican president passed the NCLB act on only somewhat less grandiose assumptions.

To be fair regarding the last statement, many of the Rush Limbaugh types have their own Utopianism--they believe that if we just gave poor people a good kick in the butt, and let them sink or swim, the overwhelming majority would swim on their own. That view is severly flawed as well.

I'm not going to say that the Utopians on either the left and right are 100% wrong--but they should realize that the best we can hope for is *some improvement*, and that many if not most of the measures they would like to take are likely to turn out to be completely worthless or counterproductive.



#10742: — 12/10  at  06:48 PM
wipe the smirk off your face Jeebus, you’s another of them “I slit my wrists out of middle-class guilt” good orthodontia with a facial piercing types

Who the fuck are you?

You hate politial correctness?
I have been the target of Hasidic intolerance and bigotry... I’ll still drink a beer with them.

Oh, really? Wow, that is so very commendable.

But, I would think that's a little too correct for you.

If you've got a problem with something I've said, then don't be a prick about it.

Actually, my teeth ARE nice (no braces, though). And, I'm not middle class. I'm rich as hell - because I'm a spoiled brat. Yep, I've got a fucking Porsche. So, what's your point? I don't feel guilty about what has been out of my control.

What does this have to do with the fact that I don't necessarily agree with what Glaivester said?

I think it is YOU, who has the problems. But, I won't make an unrelated assumption about your life. That is what we are trying to prevent, here!

I will just say that you are wrong - not because you are trying to make up for some horrible childhood nightmare, but because you are an idiot.

And, if MattH doesn't know anything about science, I hardly think that means anything about what he says about society. Being an elitest is perfectly okay, but you have lowered yourself to the likes of the people you supposedly (and hypocritically) hate "more than anything."

Regardless, I am certainly interested. Why don't you tell us all about your past, and then we can make some great assumptions about why those events are the reason you are a moron.

Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

-Jerry Garcia



#10745: paperwight — 12/10  at  06:54 PM
Or to put it another way, a society in which if we took 1000 random kids from South LA, or 1000 random white or Asian kids for that matter, and put them in the right environment, we could raise them all to be successful college students in the major of your choice.

Rather, I think the goal would be to reduce the radical disparity in the percentages who succeed and fail based on their class. Some will always swim, and some will always sink, but if one group has a jet ski, they'll skim over the water a lot faster than the group who has the ankle weights, no matter how incompetent any particular jet ski owner is.

You'll never get rid of the jet skis, and that's basically OK, but you should at least try to lighten the ankle weights.

(Paperwight, torturing metaphors for fun and profit since 1968.)



#10747: Glaivester — 12/10  at  07:08 PM
Actually, the one-to-one correlation between your age and the distance between galaxies does prove a meaningful realtionship, whether you want to define it as causal or not. The galaxies are moving away from Earth apart at a constant rate, at least from your temporal perspective.
Therefore, the position of these galaxies relative to Earth is a function of time, and age is essentially a measurement of time that is zeroed at a person's birth. So in essence, the passage of time is causing both your age (or more precisely is your age, and also is related to the position of the galaxies relative to Earth, whether you want to think of time passing as "causing motion" or not.

As for the hypothesizing, I don't think that Steve was saying that his hypothesis is proven by the data, simply that his hypothesis fit the facts that he presented. Rivka has produced a competing correlation. The best way to choose between them is to make predictions over what else would be true if the hypotheses were true and then see if it holds up. What Steve and Rivka have presented so far is mainly speculation , and people seem to be rejecting Steve's explanation out of prejudice against it rather than from showing data that refutes it (I'm not certain yet if anyone has explicitly challenged Rivka's answer, but to disprove it, they also would need to find evidence that contradicts it).



's avatar #10748: Chris Clarke — 12/10  at  07:25 PM
So in essence, the passage of time is causing both your age (or more precisely is your age, and also is related to the position of the galaxies relative to Earth, whether you want to think of time passing as “causing motion” or not.


Two years ago my truck was t-boned by a red-light runner, and it rolled with me inside, causing minor injury to me and total loss of my truck.

Today you spent several minutes writing this marvel of inane non sequitur and mixed metaphor masquerading as logic.

The two events are, by your own admission, connected, by virtue of both having taken place.

You may expect a communication from my attorney.

"I do not think we should antagonize the religious when it is not warranted, though I think we should be willing to do so whenever it is.”
-- Glen Davidson



's avatar #10749: PZ Myers — 12/10  at  07:27 PM
Having taught at Temple University, a public university in North Philadelphia with a very diverse student body, I would say that yes, we could take 1000 black kids, give them the right opportunities and the right environment, and make them all successful college students. There were brilliant minds and time-wasting slackers in the student body there, and I can assure you that neither category was restricted to any one race.

The very idea that that minority students are less capable and that it is impractical and utopian to give them an opportunity is racist, and is precisely why I don't hesitate to call the so-called "h-bd" crowd a gang of pseudoscientific racists.

PZ Myers
Division of Science and Math
University of Minnesota, Morris



#10752: — 12/10  at  08:04 PM
YeeeeHaahhh! I stayed on for the full 8 seconds of the blast. Damn, Jeebus but you attacked into the ambush. Good tactics and effort! Makes me ready to hit a local brewery and pop a cold one.

Never cared for Porsche even though I have serious respect for their engineering and quality control (tho' Cayenne esta muy picante!). OK, you're rich. Due to your own efforts or those of talented parents? In either case it's modern indicator that you have good DNA. So stop being spoiled. Invent something. Sign up and do a hitch. I served with a DuPont and he had sand, ditto the Liddy brothers. They didn't let their wealth get in the way of character building. Noblesse Oblige (sp?).

By the way, in a cinematic metaphor, your response was similar to the strafing scenes from Billy Wilder's WWII propoganda piece, "Thunderbolt". The planes are shooting at random targets with a smart-assed voice over. Suddenly, gun-camera shows tracers going into an unassuming hut and the voice says, "Wonder what's in this one?" and the thing blows up like Krakatoa. LOL.

Dude: Thank you for the detailed explaination. A couple of trips to Webster's and I'm a new man. That was a valiant academic effort even if it was harvested and replanted. PZ, do you think it was original?

CC: You are priceless. A kingdom for your subdued wit, something I've had to realize I am without and will never have. Sorry about the wreck. We're fortunate you made it out so we can be dazzled by soto voce brilliance.

As for education, NCLB has dealt a severe blow to the education of the average students from rural areas and modest means. Severely emotionally, behaviorally and educationally disabled students can tear apart a classroom with no consequense. The worst thing your child can be now is normal. Normal kids have no rights. Even some violence by disabled students, regardless of their disability, is permitted. In my time as a teacher, whenever the rules didn't apply to criminal behavior, we teachers were told, "Sorry, there's nothing we can do because of NCLB." This may sound like an exaggeration but it's true. In a small school it's really hard on everyone. The regular kids are usually so well adjusted that they put up with unbearable pressure before they complain. This new policy has led to a much higher teacher turnover.



#10755: — 12/10  at  08:33 PM
Having taught at Temple University, a public university in North Philadelphia with a very diverse student body, I would say that yes, we could take 1000 black kids, give them the right opportunities and the right environment, and make them all successful college students. There were brilliant minds and time-wasting slackers in the student body there, and I can assure you that neither category was restricted to any one race.

That is a complete distortion of what I said. Here is what I said, again: Or to put it another way, a society in which if we took 1000 random kids from South LA, or 1000 random white or Asian kids for that matter[emph added this time], and put them in the right environment, we could raise them all to be successful college students in the major of your choice. Yes I believe race makes a difference, which is probably enough to get me excommunicated in your world, but that was not my main point here. My point is that in *both* those groups very few of the 1000 random kids could cut it in many majors, no matter what their upbringing. To believe that all 1000, or close to it, could get (say) a 3.5 GPA in (say) an engineering major, or even do well enough to scrape by and get a bachelor's degree, is downright loony.

You may think that it is a terrible thing for so much potential to be wasted. But my contention is that the potential is *simply not there*. Most people (of any race) if not the vast majority are simply not capable of doing what it takes to be an engineer or scientist or doctor. Yes, improvements can be made. But don't expect any miracles. And please, when the miracles don't come, don't try to say that society is EEEEVILLLLL and needs to be exorcised because the miracles didn't come.



#10758: Steve Sailer — 12/10  at  09:40 PM
Do Democrats want to learn the underlying mechanisms under voter behavior and use that knowledge to figure out how to beat the Republicans ... or do they just want to shoot the messenger and congratulate themselves on their morally superior ignorance, while Karl Rove continues to clean their clocks?

Judging from this discussion, it sure looks like the latter.

If you guys knew anything about how election strategists, Democrat and Republican, do their jobs, you would know that when dividing up the electorate to understand it better, they always start with race/ethnicity. Go to the website run by James Carville and Stanley Greenberg, for example, or Ruy Teixiara's Emerging Democratic Majority site. Learn something before you start demonizing me.

Why do whites and blacks vote for different reasons? Look, Republican family values rhetoric does indeed hold some attraction to blacks. For example, in the 2002 midterms, 14% of blacks who were married voted for GOP candidates for the House, while only 5% of blacks who were single voted for GOP candiates. But the vast majority of married blacks make what strikes me as the perfectly rational decision that, as attractive as GOP family values may or may not be, the Democrats' policies are better for them on the pocketbook issues, and they need to vote on the pocketbook issues.

In contrast, the average net wealth of married whites is significantly higher (often due to inheritances) than that of blacks. So, many whites decide that GOP policies such as eliminating the inheritance tax are either in their own self-interest or that they can afford to vote against Democrats' pocketbook issues and in favor Republican family values issues. This is all Election Analysis 101.

Because white people are better able to afford to vote for candidates on quasi-symbolic family values grounds rather than bread and butter grounds, you see a much greater sensitivity among whites to family size. You see more than a 30% range in Bush's share of the total vote between New Englands states with no more than 1.6 children per women and Utah with 2.45 kids per woman.

In contrast, there is just not a very big range in Bush's share of the black vote by state. It ranges from slim to very slim. Typically, the GOP does better with blacks in states that were less racist than average in the past, like Washington (25%), California (18%), and New Jersey (17%), and worse in the old Jim Crow states like Alabama (6%). Black variation in voting does not appear to be closely driven by family size -- for example, Bush won 18% of the black vote in California, where black fertility has been dropping sharply in recent decades. And the black vote is only 1/7th as large as white vote, so any model of who votes for whom needs to concentrate first on white voters.

Look, Karl Rove understands all these facts. Don't you think Democrats need to understand them too. Or do you prefer getting beat?



#10759: — 12/10  at  09:57 PM
Richard -

Relax, guy!

I thought I made it pretty clear. I am rich, mostly because of my parents. So, what does that have to do with anything?

You told me to stop smirking, and that I feel guilty about my social standing.

Huh? Come on man, patronization does not suit you well - you're a smart guy.

If you knew me, it would be obvious that money doesn't mean shit to me. But, I guess you're right. The first day I learned that my parents had money, I should have killed them on the spot, so that I could have gone and done things on my own, and so everyone could feel bad for me.

You know very little about what I have accomplished on this earth, and yet you proclaim to know everything about me.

What do you know about my character?

It was you who attacked me for no reason. When I read your "profound" statements, I think about them, and respond if I feel like it. I don't make smart-ass comments out of the side of my mouth, and then move on to cryptically bash the next person.

Are you campaigning to become the new Pharyngula troll?

Ya got my vote!

Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.

-Jerry Garcia



's avatar #10760: Chris Clarke — 12/10  at  10:08 PM
Do Democrats want to learn the underlying mechanisms under voter behavior and use that knowledge to figure out how to beat the Republicans … or do they just want to shoot the messenger


When the messenger is a Vdare racist?

"I do not think we should antagonize the religious when it is not warranted, though I think we should be willing to do so whenever it is.”
-- Glen Davidson



#10768: — 12/10  at  11:01 PM
Is it so impossible to believe that difference races have different mixes of talents?

Do you deny that Black people (African Americans from certain parts of Africa) have genetic traits that make them more suited for many types of sports including track and field?

The reality is that these traits known and are present in overwhelming amounts - fast twitch muscle, long legs, long thin calves and narrow hips are the ones that have been identified so far.

If the genetic advantage in sports is true, could it then be possible that "white" people have a genetic advantage to some races with regard to certain cognitive abilities? (And perhaps a genetic disadvantage relative to other races).

It just doesn't seem like so far fetched a conclusion to come to.

Now, that doesn't mean anyone is advocating unequal treatment or unequal opportunity under the law. In fact, I am sure everyone is strongly advocating equal treatment and equal access to employment, housing, etc.

However, if it is true that abilities are present in different amounts then all the policies were pursuing to try and close these gaps have about as much likelihood of success as a program to increase the total population of white people that can dunk a basketball You might be able to increase it a little bit, but I really don't think you will ever get white people dunking at the same rate as black people. You won't get close, really.

And if we conclude that doing the best we can do then we can move on to the more serious question of what should we do, if anything, about differences in ability that fall along racial lines.

It is a tough question, but I don't believe pretending that difference between the race don't exist is the answer.

-d



#10773: — 12/10  at  11:54 PM
I'm not a biologist, but my simple common sense tells me that the differences between individuals, due to their unique characeristics, is far greater than the differences between races. My siblings and I are the same race, have nearly identical genes, and grew up in the same environment and socioeconomic conditions. And yet, our abilities (athletic, academic, etc.) are very different. All this obsession with "differences in ability that fall along racial lines" seems to have one objective: to rationalize not spending money to help those Other People.
And I certainly hope the Democratic Party does not adopt these notions as a campaign strategy.



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