#12009: Jan Theodore Galkowski — 12/27  at  10:28 PM
Terrible suffering! I'm sure everyone will, but I say everyone in this great, rich country should get out there and DONATE. International Committee of the Red Cross needs 'em now!

All that said and with no intent of cruelty or callousness, tsunamis are fascinating phenomena, at least when they remain in deep ocean. They are closely related to solitons and are non-linear wave phenomena. Earthquakes are one trigger, but not all earthquakes under sea cause them. Quakes need a good coupling to the water column to transfer energy into tsunami. These are massive waves, having wavelengths dozens and possibly hundreds of kilometers.

The tectonic context of the first earthquake which started this horrible thing is pretty complicated, with several faults in the area of a couple of different types, and even a couple of different tectonic plates involved. There are invariably many aftershocks after earthquakes of this size.

The worldwide earthquake information network is a tremendous success story, with earthquakes detected and initially analyzed entirely by computer networks. Seismologists check into the solutions and adjust it before releasing a final. Anyone can receive detailed notifications of earthquakes anywhere in the world. There's finer resolution of places of interest in the United States.

Tsunami warning networks are more complicated, requiring sea pressure and surface disturbance detectors.

#12029: Jan Theodore Galkowski — 12/28  at  11:43 AM
I was puzzled about one thing in some of the eyewitness reports. Some of the survivors reported a wave of a meter's height charging in across the ocean surface and up the beach. One woman was pinned at the back of a hotel room by its force, and her husband, standing in the room's doorway, was swept out and down the street.

This is not the behavior of ordinary wind-driven ocean waves so I did some digging via the Web. There is a mid-term review for Geology 240 from a Professor Teng at USC which addresses the destructive power of tsunami. Here are some highlights, augmented and interpolated with items:

Tsunamis have enormous destructive power. The flow speed gives rise to lateral pressure in proportion to the square of its speed. When it attains 10 m/sec, the pressure becomes 5 tons per square meter. 10 m/sec is a typical tsunamic speed when approaching land, decreased from the hundred click speed typified by their travel over open ocean. This is about the force of a bulldozer.

The buoyancy that helps the destructive tsunami force, and is proportional to the depth of water above the ground. A one-story wooden house, not anchored firmly to the foundation, egins to float in water hen the depth of water reaches about 1.3 m over the ground. Add a flow speed of a few meters per second, and the house will be completely destroyed.

(Although clearly the authority, Professor Teng is not responsible for my presentation here, particularly changes in his statements.)

#12030: Hank Fox — 12/28  at  11:46 AM
Last I heard, SF writer/demigod Arthur C. Clarke lived in Sri Lanka. I know he's only one among millions there, but he's the only person I know of as an individual in that area.

Anyone heard anything about him?

#12031: Jan Theodore Galkowski — 12/28  at  11:50 AM
Actually, yes!

There was a link to a statement he made at his foundation's Web site from space.com.

He's okay, although not all his staff are accounted for.

#12039: Jan Theodore Galkowski — 12/28  at  12:56 PM

Tsunami warning networks are more complicated, requiring sea pressure and surface disturbance detectors.

NOAA has a Flash animation of how their tsunamic warning network works. They also have a press release regarding the Sumatran tsunami.

#12070: DarkSyde — 12/28  at  03:51 PM
Unfreaking real. This is the kind of destruction in life and property you'd see from an atomic bomb. Anyone know the all time greatest loss of life from a natural disatser? nt that I'm cheering to beat the old record or anything. But I can't recall off the top of my head something this big.

#12078: Neil — 12/28  at  07:26 PM
Check out this Wikipedia link on the earthquake and tsunami for historical context and the second link for more info:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake
http://www.exn.ca/Stories/1999/12/14/53.asp

Earthquakes in Iran in recent years have killed upwards of 40,000 people. The largest earthquake death tolls this century have been in China (1976, 240,000) and Japan (1923, 140,000). The Armenian earthquake of 1988 killed around 100,000. Less reliable figures for the worst ever earthquake tolls are from China (1556, 830,000) and the Mediterranean (1201, 1.1 million).

I find it interesting that we (by which I mean "we in the west") find it hard to recall recent disasters like Iran and Armenia - presumably because they are far away and they don't affect us. I'm living in Australia, which is geographically the Asia-Pacific if not culturally/politically in the narrow minds of the current government, and this disaster seems much closer and more tangible for us. These events always seem to hit those least able to cope - but there is no reason why something similar could not occur in the Atlantic or the Pacific oceans. In fact eastern Australia is thought to be hit by a mega-tsunami every 600 years or so - and we are somewhat overdue.

This is a terrible thing affecting huge areas and millions of people - I urge you all not to forget and to contribute to your favourite aid agency if you can.

#12079: Jan Theodore Galkowski — 12/28  at  09:23 PM
Dr Ian Davis of Oxford University's Disaster Response Studies unit was interviewed by Russell Fuller on BBC Five Live's "Up All Night" tonight, suggesting that what's a shame is: (1) the amount of aid promised to the field is but a fraction of that spent upon the Iraq War by the UK & USA, arguably among world leadership, and (2) international aid promised by countries seems to rarely materialize in full. Citing the recent complaint of an Iranian official that only $17 million of the $1 billion promised by governments after the Bam earthquake in Iran has been provided.

#12087: DarkSyde — 12/28  at  10:26 PM
Yeah we could probably do a hell of a lot more good for those folks if we weren't pouring a hundred million a day down a rat hole and had our resources currently dedicated to increasing the murder rate in the world. I also read that the cost of the inaugural ceremony will be almost twice what we've pledged as a nation so far.

Trackback: Huge Earthquake Kills Thousands Tracked on: Hyscience (66.151.149.25) at 2004 12 27 23:29:01
Update: As of Dec 28(Timesonline) the death toll across southern Asia has reached 23,700. The worst-hit country was Sri Lanka, with an estimated 12,000 deaths, followed by India with 6,600. But as many as 30,000 people were said to be missing in the Andaman and Nicobar islands.

Trackback: When the Earth Moves: Earthquake/Geoscience Thread Tracked on: ReligionResearch Islam Blog (67.18.65.42) at 2004 12 28 16:01:57
Pharyngula::When the Earth Moves: Earthquake/Geoscience Thread I know it is not really part of the Islam Blog to cover the tragic events in Asia, but well how can it not be, it concerns everyone. So a link to Pharyngula with...

Trackback: Pharyngula::When the Earth Moves: Earthquake/Geoscience Thread Tracked on: Religion Research Islam Blog (195.128.174.109) at 2004 12 28 16:03:13
Pharyngula::When the Earth Moves: Earthquake/Geoscience Thread When the Earth Moves: Earthquake/Geoscience Thread I know it is not really part of the Islam Blog to cover the tragic events in Asia, but well how can it not be, it concerns everyone. S...

#12088: Jan Theodore Galkowski — 12/28  at  10:50 PM
It's interesting that, according from the late news on the same show, an extended interview from a reporter from Sydney indicates it seems there already is a process afoot to create an Indian Ocean warning network, including a meeting next month. Moreover, and perhaps of greater relevance to us, both Japan and Australia are keeping a kind of "United States, hands off; this is our problem and we'll take care of it, thank you very much" attitude towards the matter.

#12090: Jan Theodore Galkowski — 12/28  at  10:58 PM
I should clarify (sorry it's late), but the "hands off" is regarding the technical construction of the warning network and not anything at all to do with relief efforts.

Indeed, there was a suggestion that the increased involvement of the U.S. military in the rescue mission -- including the movement of two carrier battle groups into the region -- is in response to a perception in Washington that the issue and the U.S. role was getting away from them.

Carrier battle groups are enormous flotillas of military power with incredible resources, particularly ones which could be very useful for rescuing people and providing their needs. They also cost a great deal to operate every day and make an awesome impression on anyone who's seen one, including people like me who know very well what and how big they are.

One can speculate lots about why this is. Perhaps somebody realized this was an opportunity, and there were plenty of people who could step in in its place. Or maybe they just didn't want their so-called "empire" written out of this story.

But it's odd: If the money needed to operate the carrier battle groups was simply donated, it probably would do a lot more good. But, I guess, there's reasoning that it's going to be spent anyway, however much I suspect that reasoning is faulty.

But I hope this doesn't become some political football to see which country is the better do-gooder than another.

#12093: Jan Theodore Galkowski — 12/28  at  11:44 PM
We're with estimates between 55,000 and as high as 67,000 dead, none of these from aftermath disease as of yet. Bodies are floating in, and apparently Indonesia's government has finally allowed outsiders into areas closed for military reasons for a count. These are partly why the numbers jumped today.

Y'know, the Maldives, Nicobar Islands, and Andaman Islands were seen as exactly those places first and most affected by global warming because of their low sea levels. The focus is upon Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Indonesia and perhaps that's where it ought to be. But what of these places? Perhaps their situations are just hopeless.

#12094: Jan Theodore Galkowski — 12/29  at  12:16 AM
Not wanting to intrude with cold numbers, but there is something to be said here about Stephen Jay Gould's Full House and about extreme value theory. The question is, how do you ever really prepare for the absolute lark, the four sigma event, the blue moon?

In one sense noone ever should. It is so rare, to "prepare" means using resources every minute of every day to protect against it, in case that minute is the one. In another sense it is unethical not to prepare, or at least not do things smartly so risks are minimized.

While sympathy for the plight of these people is proper and moves people to act, to donate, to badger their governments to help, I wonder if we aren't missing the lesson here. Given a different set of natural circumstances, *we* could very well be these people, whether because of some rock from space which Spaceguard missed, or a sudden, violent reawakening of the New Madrid or Saint Lawrence River faults, or sudden disturbances at the Long Valley (Mammoth/Mono Lakes) or Yellowstone calderas. None of these events are anything we can stop. At best, we can dodge them and maybe even not that.

What I see as one of the best things in evolutionary theory and studies is the inherent humility which is imposed upon humankind. We aren't better than that cricket on the fence. There are as many things out there which can swat us as easily as we might swat it. And you simply cannot argue with a falling asteroid, an incoming tsunami, or an erupting volcano. There is no good and bad in it, and even the Book of Job says, in its end, that good people are harmed for no damn reason at all, while evil people succeed.

To pretend that some amount of prayer or religious ritual or certain beliefs can somehow change God's mind to not send that rock or that tsunami is simply sacrilege and a violation of every conceivable definition of God. It's like God has buttons to push, if you only know what they are. Sorry, if you believe that, you are a believer in clay statues, not in a God. Atheists and deists are better believers than you. They know that cannot be a God.

The only way we deal with these things is knowing we are in this together and acting like it. And not pretending in any way, We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. People who think that have their own wall of water awaiting them, ready to crash down and crush their arrogance.

#12100: Jan Theodore Galkowski — 12/29  at  08:22 AM
Grim news this morning, East Coast: Count is up to 70,000 dead, with the

UN had been told by a government official that a third of the 120,000 population of the Meulaboh town in Aceh, the area closest to the quake’s epicentre, “has been wiped out“.

#12101: DarkSyde — 12/29  at  08:50 AM
Bush is going to try and speak on the Quake. Man-oh-man, I hope they spelled out Tsunami on the teleprompter very carefully.

#12107: — 12/29  at  11:28 AM
Sue-Nah-Me , no doubt how they do it for Shrub.

#12112: — 12/29  at  12:41 PM
Jet Li hurt his leg saving his daughter from the wave. "Hero" indeed. That's a fine movie btw. I've heard nothing from A.C.C.

#12115: Hank Fox — 12/29  at  01:46 PM
No mention in the news that I've seen so far of wildlife or the ecosystem in that area. I wonder how this event affected some of the other denizens of our planet.

#12118: — 12/29  at  02:00 PM
The reason that funds are seldom what is promised is that officials in Thrid World countries are uniformly more concerned with their graft than with actually helping suffering people. As soon as Western NGO's encounter hard-core corruption, they usually do an about face. One can't blame them. A carrier battle group has a lot of helicopters, but the group that did the best job was the 3rd Marine Division after the terrible typhoon in Bangaladesh in the early 90s.

#12119: — 12/29  at  02:40 PM
Media: President Bush, tell us what you think about the giant Tsunami over in Indonesia.

Bush: What? Those Orientals baked the world's largest tiramisu in the world, and nobody told me about it?

Media: Um, sir? I am talking about the catastrophic natural disaster that has killed almost 100,000 people.

Bush: Yeah, right. Such a delicious dessert couldn't have killed that many! If I were to make a guess, hmmmm... it's probably no more than 100-200 dead people. Which, by the way, is way more deaths than we have been responsible for in Iraq. Plus, who cares anyway? Most of them were probably terrorists, or at least conspiring with Saddam Hussein.

Media: Actually, Mr. President. The death count is still rising, and we have yet to face communicable diseases and other environmental hazards.

Bush: Oh, baby. I just can't stop thinking about that sponge cake, mascarpone cheese, and crumbly cookie stuff. Hot Damn! I gotta get myself over to End-amnesthia, or whatever it's called, and get me my Presidential slice of the World Pie!

Media: Sorry, sir. No flights are being allowed into the area as of yet.

Bush: Why? Did Cheney and Rumsfeld go bombing countries for no reason again? Damnit! I told them they could only do that when I'm there with them. Shoot, they never let me play in their raindeer games...

#12123: — 12/29  at  04:02 PM
Wouldn't it be ironic if the tsunami killed the last Ebu Gogo on some remote coast of Sumatra?

#12220: Jan Theodore Galkowski — 12/31  at  01:03 AM
There was a pretty good story about the earthquake and tsunami warning systems and about their limitations on National Public Radio's "All Things Considered" newscast tonight.

While Science Friday has the traditional year-end wrapup tomorrow, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Ira Flatow is cooking up a show dedicated to this geophysical disaster.