PZ Myers. 2004 Sep 19. Technological progress. <http://pharyngula.org/index/weblog/technological_progress/>. Accessed 2008 Dec 01.

Posted on M00o93H7pQ09L8X1t49cHY01Z5j4TT91fGfr on Sunday, September 19, 2004

Technological progress

I swore I was only going to talk about booty, wenches, and grog from now on, but this article from Kevin Drum on technological progress just sucked me in. He's trying to argue that the pace of change is starting to change, but his premises were so blatantly bogus that I can not resist a quick slam.

He tries to argue from a vague perception that there have been fewer radical innovations in the last half of the 20th century than in the period before:

I'd take that a step further: is scientific discovery even progressing exponentially now? Or has it already started to plateau? Consider the truly decisive technological developments of the past 50 years:

Digital computers (includes transistors, ICs, and the internet)
New prescription drugs (and medical/biotech advances in general)
Spaceflight

Now look at the major inventions of the 75 years before that:

Electrification (includes a wide variety of electrical appliances)
Automobile
Radio
Penicillin
Telephone
Nuclear weapons
Airplanes
Television

Maybe you see the problem already. His vision of the current state of the art is grossly limited, and he's left off all of the good stuff. I mean, seriously, as long as he's going to reduce the ongoing revolution in biology to "medical/biotech advances in general", why not do the same for the previous 75 years and just wave it all away with the single line "transportation/communications advances in general"? I think there's a fundamental problem in categorization in his logic here.

To be charitable, though, I think part of the problem is that it is much harder to see the revolution when you're sitting in the middle of it, and in particular, when it is just beginning to take off and most of the change consists of ominous promises for the future, it tends to be a vague blur. And perhaps Drum's lack of familiarity with what is going on in biology is a factor. I would have put the discovery of DNA structure, deciphering the genetic code, and sequencing the human and other organisms' genomes in his list of modern wonders, and would have suggested that new information on genetic regulation, stem cell research, drug design, and so forth, while perhaps premature to put on lists of innovations that most people would recognize as helping them now, will be making a big difference in years to come.

I'm also going to quibble with the rest of his argument.

I'm limiting myself to genuinely new inventions that substantially changed our lives. Cell phones are great, but they're still phones. Everything else on the second list has also gotten a lot better during the past 50 years, but they don't fundamentally do things that couldn't be done before. They're improvements, not brand new things.

What a peculiar way of thinking about scientific change! So the Wright brother's plane counts as a big deal, but the accelerating pace of innovation in flight through WWII and beyond doesn't. Jets don't matter. Helicopters don't matter. Breaking the sound barrier doesn't matter. Why not? And if we were to only consider inventions that changed the majority's lives, shouldn't, say, aerial bombing count more? Or the first high-volume passenger airlines?

So here's my observation: the second list seems a lot more impressive than the first. It's possible that the digital computer alone will turn out to be more important than every other invention in the history of humanity — in fact, I think it will — but for now it isn't. It's a great invention, but no more so than the electrification of the world or the development of the steam engine.

I'll be bold and make an even stronger prediction. The biological revolution is only in its beginning stages, and it's already shaking up society. When it hits hard, as it will within the next half-century, it's going to make the Industrial and Information revolutions look feeble, because it is going to change everything about the way we think about being human.

Posted by PZ Myers on 09/19 at 05:00 PM
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  1. Even someone as abreast o' current events as Keven Drum isn't all that well informed about the biological sciences, yar matey. 'Tis why Phayrngula is a veritable treasure o' knowledge that this landlubbing layman regularly peeruses, as it 'twere.

    At least Drum be open to sichlike progress, unlike that there creationist crew now. Brrr, it makes the blood run cold jest t' dwell upon it...
    #: Posted by  on  09/19  at  08:12 PM
  2. I wish he'd actually used phrases like "by Blackbeard's sword" in his essay. TLAPD is great, but it's almost too much of a tease, showing us the level of coolness we could reach if we only stopped caring about what others thought.
    #: Posted by  on  09/19  at  08:12 PM
  3. ARR! This argument be specious, says I.
    #: Posted by Ben  on  09/19  at  08:40 PM
  4. Argghhg, yr screed endeth wit a line what'll hit dem ol' fundies like a cannonball in their doubloons, if ye git my meaning, arrghghggggghhghh.
    #: Posted by  on  09/19  at  10:14 PM
  5. I'm with Drum on this one. It seems to me that the change in our lives in the last 50 years is less significant than in the previous 50. I live a radically different life from my great grandparents, but my father's life at my age didn't seem very different than mine. And the slowdown becomes more obvious if you compare the lst 30 to the previous 30. What medical advances have we that can compare to penicillin and the polio vaccine? SSRIs are the only major medical advance I can think of that occurred in the last 30 years (I think your role as a specialist obscures this - you know of very interesting develpments that non-specialists dont, but do they produce a major effect on our lifestyles? What's the modern equivalent of the end of TB?) And outside biological technology the contrast is more significant (compare a modern car with one from the 70s - air bags and cupholders are the only non-frivolous advance I can think of.)

    while perhaps premature to put on lists of innovations that most people would recognize as helping them now, will be making a big difference in years to come.

    Yeah, but think of what was right around the corner in the 1950s - moon bases, atomic-powered flying cars, artificial intelligence (which will be right around the corner 50 years from now), the cure for cancer. Work would consist of pushing a button, and we'd all be wearing silver jumpsuits. If you want to convince me that the future hasn't been extremely disappointing, I think I'm gonna need to see a jetpack.
    #: Posted by  on  09/20  at  09:49 AM
  6. msw asks

    "What’s the modern equivalent of the end of TB?"

    Wow, did TB end? I'll need to call up my clients who are working on finding ways to treat drug-resistant TB. They'll be interested in this news.

    "compare a modern car with one from the 70s - air bags and cupholders are the only non-frivolous advance I can think of"

    Why don't you think a little harder then? In general, this would probably behoove you, msw.
    #: Posted by  on  09/20  at  02:10 PM

  7. Wow, did TB end? I’ll need to call up my clients who are working on finding ways to treat drug-resistant TB. They’ll be interested in this news.

    Are you arguing that there has been a medical advance equivalent to the discovery of antibiotics in recent years? I don't know anyone who's living in a Mexican TB community. 50 years ago, I would have.

    As for cars, they are functionally identical to the cars of 30 years ago. A little better rust proofing, lower emissions. What else? They certainly aren't flying.

    What's with the hostility?
    #: Posted by  on  09/20  at  02:28 PM
  8. No, msw, I'm just pointing out that you mentioned something about "the end of TB". TB hasn't ended by a long shot. Read about it.

    And then you suggested that "air bags and cupholders are the only non-frivolous advance" in cars since the 70s. If a cup-holder is considered a non-frivolous advance, then there are quite a few non-frivolous advances in cars since then. I am not paid to tutor you so I'm not going to create a neat little list of such advances so you have an excuse to have an argument with me over the veracity of your ill-considered claims.

    You ask me: what's with the hostility? Well, I'm tired of dissemblers who move the goalposts instead of acknowledging their mistakes. Someday you'll understand.
    #: Posted by  on  09/21  at  01:42 PM