PZ Myers. 2005 Sep 04. Quote of the day. <http://pharyngula.org/index/weblog/quote_of_the_day/>. Accessed 2008 Aug 29.
Posted on M00o93H7pQ09L8X1t49cHY01Z5j4TT91fGfr on Sunday, September 04, 2005
Quote of the day
Any sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice.
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CNN breaking news:
AP: Army Corps of Engineers says police killed some of its workers as they crossed a bridge on the way to repair a canal.
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update, from CNN:
AP: Army Corps of Engineers says its contractors were not killed by police, but gunmen who fired at them were killed.
sounds like war zone confusion to me. -
Have you seen this:
http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-09-04T005508Z_01_N03598462_RTRIDST_0_KATRINA-HELPLESS-UPDATE-1-PICTURE.XML -
Some of it, as in the case of our old friend Steve Sailer, is actual malice.
#: Posted by Chris Clarke on 09/04 at 06:09 PM
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Beaurocracies are, by their nature, set up to buffer and protect those who are in power. There's an increasing MO within Western governments of setting up your communication systems like a mob family, so that when a scandal is leaked, the "Mr Bigs" can blame human error in the front office, point to the lack of paper-trail evidence, and immunise themselves from implication. The fall guy is then transferred to another department, and the scandal is forgotten. But nobody ever considers the fact that incompetence is just as unacceptable as corruption. That's right. I see no distinction in the public sector.
You know what I blame this on the breakdown of? Society. And where's my bloody gravatar? I can't even remember what it was. -
The problem with FEMA is not that it has a bureaucracy. Every large organization public or private is bureaucratic. From what we've learned so far, the problem seems to have resulted from the inertia and helplessness of political appointees like Brown, who was forced out of his last private gig for incompetence but got his new job through patronage. The same bureaucracy that performed splendidly under Witt, flopped miserably under the leadership of hacks.
#: Posted by Jim Harrison on 09/04 at 08:54 PM
- here's the latest on that police shooting folks story from above.
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I think Jim Harrison nailed it.
There's nothing intrinsicly wrong with bureaucracies. If anyone has some idea of how to manage the displacement of a reasonable fraction of the population of two states while providing food, water, and medical care without one, I'd love to hear it.
Without competent leadership on the top, though, bureaucracies tend to move slowly and at cross purposes. What we saw last week was a lot of individually competent lower-level people trying to do their jobs with a total vacuum at the top where the coordination should have been coming from. That's how we had insane nonsense like the Bataan being right on scene off New Orleans on Monday and Tuesday, then getting orders that vastly underused its capabilities.
Democrats like me are often accused of loving bureaucracies. When an effective bureaucracy is desperately needed, though, that's not a bad thing at all.#: Posted by Llelldorin on 09/04 at 11:40 PM - Steve Sailer is despicable!!!!
- I've been collecting and updating (daily, around midnight EST) links to good blog posts on Katrina here.
- Please, Chris, would you at least warn us that you are linking to a fascist website?
- No, he's not a fascist - just an ordinary racist. "Immigration was a massive blow to democracy" is a real gem from this article, for instance.
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Arbusto, he ees no, how-joo-say "incompetent"...
he ees, how-joo-say, "Mal-competent".
so.#: Posted by ¡El Gato Negro! on 09/05 at 03:37 AM -
FEMA isn't simply incompetent. Last year the team of Bush, Chertoff and Brown somehow handled three hurricanes that mauled Florida, proactively and pre-positioned Guardsmen and supplies. The same people were in charge this time.
What changed? What clue was missed at the top? Was it as simple as Jeb calling his idiot brother last year and telling him to get on it?#: Posted by on 09/05 at 04:50 AM -
Offered without comment, because anything said in the face of such naked contempt for humanity would be utterly pointless:
The Department of Homeland Security wants you to know that September is National Preparedness Month.#: Posted by on 09/05 at 06:12 AM -
Looking objectively at New Orleans, the physiscal damage is unsignificant, whatever CNN tries to exaggerate. The levees were repaired soon (it is a few hours job) and pumping out the water is a question of 3 days, if the pumps were in working order. Facilities like electricity and water can be repaired in a day or two. In fact, most of New Orleans has not been touched by the flood. But the flood brought to surface to everybody to see a social order we rarely see, and the absolute, Zimbabwean incompetence and corruption of local elites. As Tibor Mende wrote a generation ago (Hydraulic Despotisms), to manage complicated hydraulic systems like irrigated agriculture or mantaining dry a city under sea level, you need a competent authoritarian elite. Maybe New Orleans´s hydraulic system should be run by the US Corps of Engineers (a exceedingly competent engineering body) or its Canadian equivalent, or contracted out to Israeli water engineers. I would not visit New Orleans knowing that the pumping stations are run by the City.
#: Posted by on 09/05 at 06:42 AM
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As Tibor Mende wrote a generation ago (Hydraulic Despotisms), to manage complicated hydraulic systems like irrigated agriculture or mantaining dry a city under sea level, you need a competent authoritarian elite.
Can you expand on this argument a little bit? What I've heard is that authoritarian elites go hand in hand with massive irrigation or maintaining a city under sea level dry because these projects serve to make the people dependent on the government. -
In fact, most of New Orleans has not been touched by the flood.
This minor mendacity is put to rest by the satellite photo published by the NYT on Friday Sept2, on page A20. -
The levees were repaired soon (it is a few hours job) and pumping out the water is a question of 3 days, if the pumps were in working order.
This is a bigger lie. The breach in the 17th street canal levee was still being filled on Friday. The Army Corp of Engineers says it will be 36 to 80 days (depending on the part of the city) to drain the city. If the water level in Lake Pontchartrain goes down fast enough, to below the level of water in the city, then they might actually breach some levees to speed up the process. The New Orleans pumps are able to deal with about an inch of rainfall per hour type of situations, not more than that.
If one cannot get stuff that is plainly in the newspapers right, I for one am not disposed to believe anything from such a source about ancient hydraulic civilizations, from where the information is, shall we say, sparser? -
Finally, let's not forget the Netherlands, shall we? It is not run by a "competent authoritarian elite". Reminder, 27% of the Netherlands is under sea level, and this area is home to 60% of the country's population of 16 million people.
!Plonk! -
These two articles (September 2004) detail the changes in FEMA under Bush Jr. and how those changes affect the preparedness on the ground:
http://www.indyweek.com/durham/2004-09-22/cover.html
http://www.indyweek.com/durham/2004-09-22/cover2.html -
there's lots that could have been done by everyone.
my take about Nagin and bussing the residual folks of NO out, based upon readings, is that he couldn't get them mobilized fast enough, and that he knew he'd need to use threat of force to move them, knowing them to be stubborn, and that required National Guard.
that said, what happened here is similar to what happened to emergency services on 11th September 2001 in that everyone was paralyzed by failing to have a robust communications system. in this case, it extends to the citizens of NO and to elsewhere on the Gulf. while people are trying to remedy this now, one thing that seems to be absolutely essential for any future disaster recovery is a preexisting, self-powered network of communications devices, whether pure digital SMS or voice or both. to me that sounds like a satellites hub network activated upon emergency with lots and lots of handhelds prepositioned, duplicated, and operated only in emergency and relying upon long-lived batteries supplemented by solar. also needs to operate in cities without LOS to the satellite.
that crosses state boundaries. sounds like a federal mandate. -
could you at least warn us that you are linking to a fascist website?
Sorry about that, Nessie.
And I'm even sorrier about the turn to rank racism that seems to have infected Jaimito, whose comments I once enjoyed. Maybe you'd be happier commenting at that website Loch Ness complained about, Jaimito. You'd certanly find people with whom you're more sympatico. Of course, you'd have to change your handle.#: Posted by Chris Clarke on 09/05 at 10:21 AM -
"In fact, most of New Orleans has not been touched by the flood."
Every single news source I have seen states that 80% has been flooded for several days (eg here,) and maps of the bloody place confirm it, nevermind your other ridiculous innaccuracies.
The Red Cross has credited Nagin with saving lives by opening the Superdome and Convention Centre to people too poor to leave, pointing out that the alternatives were much worse.
-Schmitt.#: Posted by on 09/05 at 11:14 AM -
In the law, you can infer intent from conduct in some types of cases. Reckless behavior becomes a stand-in for intent because otherwise you would let people off who do incredibly dangerous things that put people and property at risk simply because they didn't form an intent to harm.
This disaster doesn't meet that standard. First, no one knew what would happen until after the levee broke and that levee is not on the shore of the Lake. If the hurricane had stayed on course or had moved a few miles more to the side, the levee may well not have burst. Second, the effect of the levee break wasn't apparent immediately. The section that failed is a concrete structure on top of a dirt structure and it appears to have failed because the dirt structure had subsided - as the whole city does each year - and water came over the top, eroding the base and causing a failure.
Third, though people talk about evacuation plans, think about the logistics. New Orleans Parish has a half million people. If 20% are elderly or disabled - which is low - that's 100,000 people. You would need something like 2,000 buses to carry them, if you could somehow in short hours collect them from all over, with their medical needs, with their necessary things. Impossible. We aren't going to maintain giant fleets of buses all over the coast where a hurricane might strike just in case.
Fourth, once the city flooded, things turned bad fast. There was a total breakdown of city services, meaning water and electric, and some people acted very badly. My guess is that the number of killings, etc. were wildly overstated based on rumors, guesses and heard gunshots. The timeline was that the hurricane hit, the levee failed the next day and by the fourth day help was arriving. That's actually pretty fast.
Fifth, because of wonderful things like TV and the net, we see things happening and imagine that systems can respond instantly. After all, we respond with outrage immediately. Can't happen in the real world.
Finally, this site is about science. I'm not a fan of Bush, but it's not rational to heap scorn and blame without discussing the pragmatic parameters.#: Posted by on 09/05 at 08:56 PM -
First, no one knew what would happen until after the levee broke and that levee is not on the shore of the Lake.
On the contrary, a year ago FEMA predicted almost everything that turned out to happen in the event of a category 4 or 5 hurricane.
Third, though people talk about evacuation plans, think about the logistics. New Orleans Parish has a half million people. If 20% are elderly or disabled - which is low - that's 100,000 people. You would need something like 2,000 buses to carry them, if you could somehow in short hours collect them from all over, with their medical needs, with their necessary things. Impossible. We aren't going to maintain giant fleets of buses all over the coast where a hurricane might strike just in case.
You don't actually need 2,000 buses, only 2,000 bus trips. There was a warning of at least 48 hours; at 6 hours per bus trip, this reduces the number of buses required to 250 assuming 24-hour use, 333 assuming 18-hour use. -
Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities.
-- Winston Churchill -
The unnatural and increasingly rapid growth of the feeble-minded and insane classes, coupled as it is with a steady restriction among all the thrifty, energetic and superior stocks, constitutes a national and race danger which it is impossible to exaggerate... I feel that the source from which the stream of madness is fed should be cut off and sealed up before another year has passed.
I do not admit for instance, that a great wrong has been done to the Red Indians of America or the black people of Australia. I do not admit that a wrong has been done to these people by the fact that a stronger race, a higher-grade race, a more worldly wise race to put it that way, has come in and taken their place.
- Winston Churchill -
from the Financial Times:
The conservative Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper noted Friday that the "community spirit and optimism among the American people would ensure they would overcome the catastrophe", but added: "One should be allowed to ask whether the authorities reacted quickly enough, whether the preparations for such a disaster were extensive enough and whether the relief efforts functioned properly".
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damning, damning FEMA behavior reported, once again in the Financial Times, this time from Brad Delong, professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley.
hey, where's the United States media, including CNN, on all of this stuff? -
interesting. in the document having the wonderfully lucid title of Federal Stafford Act Disaster Assistance: Presidential Declarations, Eligible Activities, and Funding, there are a couple of pertinent paragraphs.
Presidential Declarations. Under Stafford Act authority, five types of
remember that: Stafford Act. in particular, note Sections 5131-5132. Section 5132 says in part:
actions may be taken, summarized as follows.
! Major disaster. The President issues a major disaster declaration after receiving a request from the governor of the affected state. Major disaster declarations may be issued after a natural catastrophe or, "regardless of cause, fire, flood or explosion." A declaration authorizes DHS to administer various federal disaster assistance programs for victims of declared disasters. Each major disaster declaration specifies the type of incident covered, the time period covered, the types of disaster assistance available, the counties affected by the declaration, and the name of the federal coordinating officer.
! Emergency. The declaration process for emergencies is similar to that used for major disasters; the President may, however, issue an emergency declaration without a gubernatorial request if primary responsibility rests with the federal government. An emergency declaration may be issued on "any occasion or instance" in which the President determines that federal assistance is required. Under an emergency declaration, the federal government funds and undertakes emergency response activities, debris removal, and individual assistance and housing programs. DRF expenditures for an emergency are limited to $5 million per declaration unless the President determines that there is a continuing need; Congress must be notified if the $5 million ceiling is breached.
! Fire suppression. The Secretary of DHS is authorized to provide fire suppression assistance to supplement the resources of communities when fires threaten such destruction as would warrant a major disaster declaration.
! Defense emergency. Upon request from the governor of an affected state, the President may authorize the Department of Defense (DOD) to carry out emergency work for a period not to exceed 10 days. DOD emergency work is limited to work essential for the preservation of life and property.
! Pre-declaration activities. When a situation threatens human health and safety, and a disaster is imminent but not yet declared, the Secretary of DHS may place agency employees on alert. DHS monitors the status of the situation, communicates with state emergency officials on potential assistance requirements, and deploys teams and resources to maximize the speed and effectiveness of the anticipated federal response and, when necessary, performs preparedness and preliminary damage assessment activities.! Readiness of Federal agencies to issue warnings to state and local officials: The President shall insure that all appropriate Federal agencies are prepared to issue warnings of disasters to State and local officials.
doesn't look like a local or state responsibility to me.
! Technical assistance to State and local governments for effective warnings: The President shall direct appropriate Federal agencies to provide technical assistance to State and local governments to insure that timely and effective disaster warning is provided.
! Warnings to governmental authorities and public endangered by disaster: The President is authorized to utilize or to make available to Federal, State, and local agencies the facilities of the civil defense communications system established and maintained pursuant to section 201(c) of the Federal Civil Defense Act of 1950, as amended (50 U.S.C. App 2281(c)), section 611(c) of this Act, or any other Federal communications system for the purpose of providing warning to governmental authorities and the civilian population in areas endangered by disasters. [§ 3412(b), Pub. L. 103-337, Oct. 5, 1994] [Reference to § 611(c) is incorrect; probably should be § 611(d). Technical correction needed]
! Agreements with commercial communications systems for use of facilities: The President is authorized to enter into agreements with the officers or agents of any private or commercial communications systems who volunteer the use of their systems on a reimbursable or nonreimbursable basis for the purpose of providing warning to governmental authorities and the civilian population endangered by disasters.
